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Uncertainty in Social Security Trust Fund Projections

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  • Meyerson, Noah
  • Sabelhaus, John

Abstract

This paper presents measures of uncertainty about Social Security Trust Fund projections based on the new Long-Term Actuarial Model (LTAM) being developed at the Congressional Budget Office. Measuring the variance in Social Security outcomes involves three steps: specifying a model, characterizing uncertainty about model inputs, and generating useful measures of the uncertainty about model outputs. There are significant trade-offs to be made at each step, which can affect measured uncertainty in important ways. The LTAM framework is a promising approach for reconciling differences in other studies of uncertainty about long-term Social Security finances.

Suggested Citation

  • Meyerson, Noah & Sabelhaus, John, 2000. "Uncertainty in Social Security Trust Fund Projections," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 53(3), pages 515-530, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:53:y:2000:i:3:p:515-30
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2000.3.11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lee, Ronald & Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 1998. "Uncertain Demographic Futures and Social Security Finances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 237-241, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joan Gil & Miguel Angel López García & Jorge Onrubia & Cío Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2007. "A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 182(3), pages 75-116, September.
    2. David C. Lane & Özge Pala & Yaman Barlas & Willem L. Auping & Erik Pruyt & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2015. "Societal Ageing in the Netherlands: A Robust System Dynamics Approach," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 485-501, July.
    3. Samir Soneji & Gary King, 2012. "Statistical Security for Social Security," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 1037-1060, August.
    4. Brian McCulloch & Jane Frances, 2001. "Financing New Zealand Superannuation," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/20, New Zealand Treasury.

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