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Reforma de pensiones 2011 en España: una primera valoración

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  • Conde Ruiz, José Ignacio.
  • Gonzalez, Clara I.

Abstract

El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar el impacto de la reforma de pensiones aprobada en 2011. A través de un modelo de proyección contable con agentes heterogéneos y generaciones solapadas se proyectan los ingresos y gastos del sistema de pensiones para las próximas cuatro décadas. En concreto, se evalúa el impacto que tendrá la modificación de la tasa de sustitución, la ampliación del período de cálculo y el retraso de la edad de jubilación. Adicionalmente, se ha realizado la proyección del gasto en pensiones bajo dos escenarios migratorios alternativos: i) uno combinación de los últimos publicados por el INE donde el flujo neto migratorio se reduce a 70.000 personas al año y ii) otro escenario revisado que incorpora una hipótesis migratoria más generosa y realista. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que estas tres modificaciones podrían llegar a suponer un ahorro aproximado del 3% del PIB en el año 2051. No obstante, no hemos podido valorar el factor de sostenibilidad que entrará en funcionamiento en el año 2027 (que transforma el sistema español en un sistema de contribución definida) debido a la falta de concreción en la Ley. Finalmente, se analizan los cambios en las pensiones medias según sexo, nivel educativo y nacionalidad.

Suggested Citation

  • Conde Ruiz, José Ignacio. & Gonzalez, Clara I., 2012. "Reforma de pensiones 2011 en España: una primera valoración," Economic Reports 01-2012, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdacee:01-2012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ignacio Moral-Arce & Ció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2008. "La sostenibilidad del sistema de pensiones. una aproximación a partir de la MCVL," Revista de Economia Aplicada, Universidad de Zaragoza, Departamento de Estructura Economica y Economia Publica, vol. 16(E-1), pages 29-66, Special N.
    2. Rojas, Juan A., 2005. "Life-cycle earnings, cohort size effects and social security: a quantitative exploration," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 465-485, February.
    3. Sánchez Martín, Alfonso R., 2010. "Endogenous retirement and public pension system reform in Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 336-349, January.
    4. Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008. "Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
    5. Angel Melguizo & Manuel Balmaseda & David Taguas, 2005. "Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en Espana," Working Papers 0505, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    6. Javier Alonso Meseguer & José A. Herce, "undated". "Balance del sistema de pensiones y boom migratorio en España. Proyecciones del modelo MODPENS de FEDEA a 2050," Working Papers 2003-02, FEDEA.
    7. Clara Isabel González & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2008. "Immigration and Social Security in Spain," Working Papers 2008-36, FEDEA.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Precariedad
      by J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz in Nada Es Gratis on 2015-02-05 12:33:27
    2. Lecciones del pasado: una (in)sostenibilidad anunciada
      by Sergi Jiménez in Nada Es Gratis on 2012-04-27 11:00:06

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