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Business Cycle Effects on Labour Force Transitions for Older People in Spain

  • Sergi Jiménez Martín
  • Judit Vall Castello

This paper analyses the determinants of observed exits from employment for people aged 45-59 years old in the context of the Spanish labour market in 1981-2006. The main aim of the paper is to identify the effect of the business cycle (BC) on the timing and the type of exit route out of the labour force. We proceed in two stages. In the first stage, we study the determinants of exits from employment to non-employment. In the second, we take into account the fact that there are several competing exit routes (unemployment, disability or inactivity) and estimate a competing risk model to evaluate how important BC conditions are in determining the respective exit probabilities. We make use of the recently released Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales to estimate discrete time hazard regression models. We match this information with a number of variables constructed with macroeconomic data derived from the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica to measure growth and employability performance of different economic sectors and regions in Spain in order to capture the variation in the business cycle between times, sectors and regions. Time-varying covariates are also included in the analysis to model the monetary incentives provided by the system. We find that both BC conditions and a number of special schemes included in the unemployment and disability legislation affect the exit timing and also the choice of the route out of the labour market.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 2009-25.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2009-25
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  1. José Ignacio García Pérez & Yolanda Rebollo Sanz, 2005. "The use of permanent and temporary jobs across Spanish regions: Do unit labour cost differentials offer an explanation?," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2005/16, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  2. J. Ignacio García-Pérez & Yolanda Rebollo, 2007. "The Use of Permanent Contracts Across Spanish Regions: Do Regional Wage Subsidies Work?," Working Papers 2007-08, FEDEA.
  3. David Haardt, 2007. "Transitions Out Of and Back To Employment among Older Men and Women in the UK," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 197, McMaster University.
  4. van den Berg, Gerard J. & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2001. "Combining micro and macro unemployment duration data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 271-309, June.
  5. Gielen, A. C., 2007. "Working Hours Flexibility and Older Workers' Labor Supply," Discussion Paper 2007-49, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Blau, David M, 1994. "Labor Force Dynamics of Older Men," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 117-56, January.
  7. Costas Meghir & Edward Whitehouse, 1993. "Labour market transitions and retirement of men in the UK," IFS Working Papers W93/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  8. Narendranathan, W. & Stewart, M.B., 1989. "Modelling The Probability Of Leaving Unemployment: Competing Risks Models With Flexible Baseline Hazards," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 331, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  9. José Ignacio García Pérez & Yolanda Rebollo Sanz, 2004. "Wage changes through job mobility in Europe: A multinomial endogenous switching approach," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/70, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  10. José Ignacio García & Alfonso R. Sánchez Martín, 2008. "Social security and the search behaviour of workers approaching retirement," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2008/10, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  11. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & José M. Labeaga & Cristina Vilaplana Prieto, 2005. "A sequential model for older workers’ labor transitions after a health shock," Economics Working Papers 898, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  12. Bover, O. & Arellano, M. & Bentolila, S., 1997. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration, and the Business Cycle," Papers 9717, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  13. Michele Boldrin & Sergi Jimenez-Martin & Franco Peracchi, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement in Spain," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 305-353 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Stephen P. Jenkins & Carlos GarcÌa-Serrano, 2004. "The Relationship between Unemployment Benefits and Re-employment Probabilities: Evidence from Spain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(2), pages 239-260, 05.
  15. Raquel Vegas & Isabel Argimón & Marta Botella & Clara I. González, 2009. "Retirement behaviour and retirement incentives in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0913, Banco de Espa�a.
  16. repec:dgr:kubcen:200749 is not listed on IDEAS
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