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Another look at unemployment duration: exit to a permanent vs. a temporary job

  • Olympia Bover

    ()

    (Banco de España)

  • Ramón Gómez

    (European Central Bank)

We investigate the determinants of exit rates from unemployment to permanent and temporary jobs. First, we present a theoretical model to discuss the effects of reservation wages, unemployment benefits and job offers on the exit probabilities to permanent and temporary jobs. Then, using micro data from the Spanish Labour Force Survey we estimate a multinomial duration model, including unemployment benefits, the cycle and personal characteristics. Important differential effects are unmasked by distinguishing by type of employment. The negative impact of receiving benefits dominates the combined effect of business cycle variables in exits to temporary employment but not to permanent jobs. (Copyright: Fundación SEPI)

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Article provided by Fundación SEPI in its journal Investigaciones Económicas.

Volume (Year): 28 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 285-314

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Handle: RePEc:iec:inveco:v:28:y:2004:i:2:p:285-314
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  1. Pedro Portugal & John T. Addison, 1998. "Unemployment Insurance and Joblessness in Portugal," Working Papers w199804, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Guido Imbens & Lisa Lynch, 2006. "Re-employment probabilities over the business cycle," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 111-134, August.
  3. Sueyoshi, Glenn T, 1995. "A Class of Binary Response Models for Grouped Duration Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 411-31, Oct.-Dec..
  4. Bover, O. & Arellano, M. & Bentolila, S., 1997. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration, and the Business Cycle," Papers 9717, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  5. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
  6. Narendranathan, W. & Stewart, M.B., 1989. "Modelling The Probability Of Leaving Unemployment: Competing Risks Models With Flexible Baseline Hazards," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 331, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  7. Ángel Estrada & Pilar García-Perea & Mario Izquierdo, 2002. "Los flujos de trabajadores en España: el impacto del empleo temporal," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0206, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Narendranathan, W & Stewart, Mark B, 1993. "How Does the Benefit Effect Vary as Unemployment Spells Lengthen?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 361-81, Oct.-Dec..
  9. Carrasco, R., 1997. "Transitions to and from Self-Employment in Spain: An Empirical Analysis," Papers 9710, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  10. Alfonso Alba-Ramírez, 1998. "Re-employment probabilities of young workers in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 22(2), pages 201-224, May.
  11. Olympia Bover & Ramón Gómez, 1999. "Another Look at Unemployment Duration: Long-Term Unemployment and Exit to a Permanent Job," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9903, Banco de Espa�a.
  12. Olympia Bover & Pilar García-Perea & Pedro Portugal, 2000. "Labour market outliers: Lessons from Portugal and Spain," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 379-428, October.
  13. Pablo Antolín, 1995. "Transition Probabilities To Employment And Non-Participation," Working Papers. Serie EC 1995-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
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