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Impacts of Immigration on Aging Welfare-State An Applied General Equilibrium Model for France

Author

Listed:
  • Xavier Chojnicki
  • Lionel Ragot

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Immigration is often seen as an instrument of adaptation for aging countries. In this paper, we evaluate, using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the contribution of migration policy in reducing the tax burden associated with the aging population in France. Four variants, compared to a baseline scenario based on oficial projections, are simulated with the aim to quantify the immigration effects on the French social protection finances. The first variant assesses the economic effects of immigration in France as projected into official forecasts. The three other variants are built on the same more ambitious annual flows of immigrants (corresponding to net migration that have characterized the second great wave of immigration in France in the twentieth century). These three variants only distinguish in terms of the skill structure of new migrants. We show that the age and skill structure of immigrants are the key feature that mainly determine the effects on social protection finances. Overall, these effcts are all the more positive in the short-medium term that the migration policy is selective (in favor of more skilled workers). In the long term, beneficial effects of a selective policy may disappear. But the financial gains from more consequent migration flows are relatively moderated in comparison of demographic changes implied.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Chojnicki & Lionel Ragot, 2014. "Impacts of Immigration on Aging Welfare-State An Applied General Equilibrium Model for France," Working Papers hal-04141328, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141328
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04141328
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Marek Gora & Anna Ruzik-Sierdzinska, 2020. "Migration with pension reform expectations," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 44(2), pages 203-219.
    3. Michael Christl & Alain Bélanger & Alessandra Conte & Jacopo Mazza & Edlira Narazani, 2022. "Projecting the fiscal impact of immigration in the European Union," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 365-385, December.
    4. Eduard Suari‐Andreu & Olaf van Vliet, 2023. "Intra‐EU migration, public transfers and assimilation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(360), pages 1229-1264, October.
    5. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr, 2018. "The Effects of Immigration in Developed Countries: Insights from Recent Economic Research," CEPII Policy Brief 2018-22, CEPII research center.
    6. A. Ghintran & E. González-Arangüena & C. Manuel, 2012. "A probabilistic position value," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 201(1), pages 183-196, December.
    7. Paweł Kaczmarczyk, 2013. "Are immigrants a burden for the state budget? Review paper," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/79, European University Institute.
    8. Bettin, Giulia & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "Health spending in Italy: The impact of immigrants," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Epstein, Gil S. & Katav-Herz, Shirit, 2019. "Who is in favor of immigration," GLO Discussion Paper Series 351, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    10. Lucile Bécaud & Geanina Ramona Caulea & Meixing Dai, 2017. "La crise des migrants peut-elle conduire ? l’éclatement de l’espace Schengen ?," Bulletin de l'Observatoire des politiques économiques en Europe, Observatoire des Politiques Économiques en Europe (OPEE), vol. 37(1), pages 13-23, December.
    11. Kaczmarczyk, Pawel, 2015. "Burden or Relief? Fiscal Impacts of Recent Ukrainian Migration to Poland," IZA Discussion Papers 8779, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Ndeye Penda Sokhna & Lionel Ragot & Xavier Chojnicki, 2018. "The fiscal impact of 30 years of immigration in France: an accounting approach," Working Papers hal-04141694, HAL.
    13. Şerife Genç İleri, 2019. "Selective immigration policy and its impacts on Canada's native‐born population: A general equilibrium analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(3), pages 954-992, August.
    14. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr & Arthur Sweetman, 2020. "An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1365-1403, November.
    15. Gil S. Epstein & Shirit Katav Herz, 2019. "Who is in favor of immigration: the wealthy or the poor? the old or the young?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1424-1434.
    16. Suari-Andreu, Eduard & van Vliet, Olaf, 2022. "Intra-EU Migration, Public Transfers, and Assimilation: Evidence for the Netherlands," MPRA Paper 112404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. E. Wesley F. Peterson, 2017. "The Role of Population in Economic Growth," SAGE Open, , vol. 7(4), pages 21582440177, October.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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