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Impacts of Immigration on Aging Welfare-State An Applied General Equilibrium Model for France

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  • Xavier Chojnicki
  • Lionel Ragot

Abstract

Immigration is often seen as an instrument of adaptation for aging countries. In this paper, we evaluate, using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the contribution of migration policy in reducing the tax burden associated with the aging population in France. Four variants, compared to a baseline scenario based on oficial projections, are simulated with the aim to quantify the immigration effects on the French social protection finances. The first variant assesses the economic effects of immigration in France as projected into official forecasts. The three other variants are built on the same more ambitious annual flows of immigrants (corresponding to net migration that have characterized the second great wave of immigration in France in the twentieth century). These three variants only distinguish in terms of the skill structure of new migrants. We show that the age and skill structure of immigrants are the key feature that mainly determine the effects on social protection finances. Overall, these effcts are all the more positive in the short-medium term that the migration policy is selective (in favor of more skilled workers). In the long term, beneficial effects of a selective policy may disappear. But the financial gains from more consequent migration flows are relatively moderated in comparison of demographic changes implied.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Chojnicki & Lionel Ragot, 2014. "Impacts of Immigration on Aging Welfare-State An Applied General Equilibrium Model for France," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2014-33
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xavier Chojnicki, 2004. "The economie impact of immigration for the host countries," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 47(1), pages 9-28.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pawel Kaczmarczyk, 2013. "Are immigrants a burden for the state budget? Review paper," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers p0356, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    2. Kaczmarczyk, Pawel, 2015. "Burden or Relief? Fiscal Impacts of Recent Ukrainian Migration to Poland," IZA Discussion Papers 8779, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. A. Ghintran & E. González-Arangüena & C. Manuel, 2012. "A probabilistic position value," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 201(1), pages 183-196, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; AGEM; Overlapping generations; Aging; Public finance; Social protection.;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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