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Migration Challenge for PAYG

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  • Gurgen Aslanyan

Abstract

Immigration has been popularised in the economics literature as a tool to balance the troubled PAYG pension systems. A pivotal research by Razin and Sadka showed that unskilled immigration can surmount the pension problem and, further, boost the general welfare in the host economy. However a large strand of current economics literature is engaged in identifying mechanisms through which unskilled immigration, while solving the pension problem, causes undesired shifts in general welfare. This work shows that actually recurring unskilled immigration may challenge the entire pension system and decrease the pension benefits themselves.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurgen Aslanyan, 2012. "Migration Challenge for PAYG," FIW Working Paper series 101, FIW.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2012:i:101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J., 2010. "Attitudes toward Highly Skilled and Low-skilled Immigration: Evidence from a Survey Experiment," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 61-84, February.
    2. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 2000. "Unskilled Migration: A Burden or a Boon for the Welfare State?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 463-479, September.
    3. Yann Algan & Christian Dustmann & Albrecht Glitz & Alan Manning, 2010. "The Economic Situation of First and Second-Generation Immigrants in France, Germany and the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(542), pages 4-30, February.
    4. Timothy Miller & Ronald Lee, 2000. "Immigration, Social Security, and Broader Fiscal Impacts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 350-354, May.
    5. Kemnitz, Alexander, 2008. "Can immigrant employment alleviate the demographic burden? The role of union centralization," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 123-126, April.
    6. repec:bla:scandj:v:102:y:2000:i:3:p:463-79 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Felipe SERRANO & Begoña EGUÍA & Jesús FERREIRO, 2011. "Public pensions' sustainability and population ageing: Is immigration the solution?," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 150(1-2), pages 63-79, June.
    8. Cremer, Helmuth & Gahvari, Firouz & Pestieau, Pierre, 2011. "Fertility, human capital accumulation, and the pension system," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1272-1279.
    9. Casarico, Alessandra & Devillanova, Carlo, 2003. "Social security and migration with endogenous skill upgrading," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3-4), pages 773-797, March.
    10. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Fertility and PAYG pensions in the overlapping generations model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 955-961, July.
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    12. Tim Krieger, 2004. "Fertility rates and skill distribution in Razin and Sadka’s migration-pension model: A note," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 177-182, February.
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    14. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Increasing PAYG pension benefits and reducing contribution rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 81-84, May.
    15. Muysken, J. & Corvers, F. & Ziesemer, T.H.W., 2008. "Immigration can alleviate the ageing problem," Research Memorandum 004, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    16. Masatoshi Jinno, 2011. "Assimilation, Immigration, and the Welfare State," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 67(1), pages 46-63, March.
    17. David Blake & Les Mayhew, 2006. "On The Sustainability of the UK State Pension System in the Light of Population Ageing and Declining Fertility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages 286-305, June.
    18. Alexander Kemnitz, 2003. "Immigration, Unemployment and Pensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(1), pages 31-48, March.
    19. Cremer, Helmuth & Pestieau, Pierre, 1998. "Social insurance, majority voting and labor mobility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 397-420, June.
    20. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 1999. "Migration and pension with international capital mobility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 141-150, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zuzana Brokesova & Andrej Cupak & Gueorgui Kolev, 2017. "Financial literacy and voluntary savings for retirement in Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 10/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    2. Zaiceva, A. & Zimmermann, K.F., 2016. "Migration and the Demographic Shift," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 119-177, Elsevier.
    3. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 2014. "Migration and Welfare State: Why is America Different from Europe?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10127, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Kojun Hamada & Akihiko Kaneko & Mitsuyoshi Yanagihara, 2022. "Fertility decline and a pay‐as‐you‐go pension system in a two‐sector model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 466-480, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public Pensions; PAYG; Unskilled Migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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