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Fertility, Human Capital Accumulation, and the Pension System

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Listed:
  • Helmuth Cremer
  • Firouz Gahvari
  • Pierre Pestieau

Abstract

This paper provides a unified treatment of externalities associated with fertility and human capital accumulation as they relate to pension systems. It considers as overlapping generations model in which every generation consists of high earners and low earners with the proportion of types being determined endogenously. The number of children is deterministically chosen but the children’s future ability is in part stochastic, in part determined by the family background, and in part through education. In addition to the customary externality source associated with a change in average fertility rate, this setup highlights another externality source. This is due to the effect of a parent’s choice of number and educational attainment of his children on the proportion of high-ability individuals in the steady state. Our results include: (i) Investments in education of high- and low-ability parents must be subsidized, (ii) direct child subsidies to one or both parent types can be negative; i.e., they can be taxes, (iii) net subsidies to children (direct child subsidies plus education subsidies) to high-ability parents are always positive, and to low-ability parents can be positive or negative, (iv) either education subsidies or child subsidies, when used alone, can dominate the other instrument, (v) using child subsidy instruments alone entails a higher fertility rate and a lower ratio of high- to low-ability children, as compared to using education subsidies alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Helmuth Cremer & Firouz Gahvari & Pierre Pestieau, 2009. "Fertility, Human Capital Accumulation, and the Pension System," CESifo Working Paper Series 2736, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2736
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yasuoka, Masaya & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2015. "Public Education, Pension and Debt Policy," CIS Discussion paper series 649, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Hsiao-Lei Chu, 2015. "Private Tutoring, Wealth Constraint and Higher Education," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 608-634, October.
    3. Wei Gao & Chengliang Yan & Fuyang Zhao, 2021. "Longevity, Grandparents Caring, and PAYG Pensions," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 22(2), pages 451-465, November.
    4. Yu‐Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2010. "Booms, Recessions And Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look At Investment Decisions Under Cyclical Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(3), pages 290-317, July.
    5. Uchida, Yuki & Ono, Tetsuo, 2022. "Politics of Public Education and Pension Reform with Endogenous Fertility," MPRA Paper 112748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Cremer, Helmuth & Gahvari, Firouz & Pestieau, Pierre, 2011. "Fertility, human capital accumulation, and the pension system," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1272-1279.
    7. Simon Fan & Yu Pang & Pierre Pestieau, 2022. "Investment in children, social security, and intragenerational risk sharing," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(2), pages 286-315, April.
    8. Bandyopadhyay, Debasis & La Pere, Anatoly, 2020. "Raising productivity with pension premium," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 295-308.
    9. Giam Cipriani, 2014. "Population aging and PAYG pensions in the OLG model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 251-256, January.
    10. Peter J. Stauvermann & Frank Wernitz, 2019. "Why Child Allowances Fail to Solve the Pension Problem of Aging Societies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, December.
    11. Takuya Obara & Yoshitomo Ogawa, 2024. "Optimal taxation in an endogenous fertility model with non-cooperative behavior," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 173-197, March.
    12. Szegő, Szilvia, 2011. "Pensions containing allowance paid by children – why and how?," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 56(4), pages 429-445.
    13. Cipriani, Giam Pietro & Fioroni, Tamara, 2022. "Social security and endogenous demographic change: child support and retirement policies," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 307-325, July.
    14. Gurgen Aslanyan, 2014. "The migration challenge for PAYG," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 1023-1038, October.
    15. Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2018. "Aging, Retirement, And Pay-As-You-Go Pensions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 1173-1183, July.
    16. Bréchet, Thierry & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Rotillon, Gilles, 2013. "Tradable pollution permits in dynamic general equilibrium: Can optimality and acceptability be reconciled?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 89-97.
    17. Amol Amol & Monisankar Bishnu & Tridip Ray, 2023. "Pension, possible phaseout, and endogenous fertility in general equilibrium," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 25(2), pages 376-406, April.
    18. Masatoshi Jinno & Masaya Yasuoka, 2016. "Are the social security benefits of pensions or child-care policies best financed by a consumption tax?," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 12(3), pages 94-112, September.
    19. Johannes, Jan & Van Bellegem, Sébastien & Vanhems, Anne, 2010. "Iterative Regularization in Nonparametric Instrumental Regression," TSE Working Papers 10-184, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    20. Siew Ling Yew & Jie Zhang, 2018. "Health spending, savings and fertility in a lifecycle‐dynastic model with longevity externalities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(1), pages 186-215, February.
    21. Simon Fan & Yu Pang & Pierre Pestieau, 2020. "A model of the optimal allocation of government expenditures," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(4), pages 845-876, August.
    22. Takuya Obara & Yoshitomo Ogawa, 2020. "Optimal Taxation in an Endogenous Fertility Model with Non-Cooperative Couples," Discussion Paper Series 211, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Jan 2021.
    23. Cipriani, Giam Pietro & Fioroni, Tamara, 2023. "Human Capital and Pensions with Endogenous Fertility and Retirement," IZA Discussion Papers 16029, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    24. Cipriani, Giam Pietro & Fioroni, Tamara, 2021. "Endogenous Demographic Change, Retirement, And Social Security," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 609-631, April.
    25. C. Fan & Jie Zhang, 2013. "Differential fertility and intergenerational mobility under private versus public education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 907-941, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pay-as-you-go social security; endogenous fertility; education; endogenous ratio of high to low ability types; three externality sources; education subsidies; child subsidies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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