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Pensions with endogenous and stochastic fertility

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  • CREMER, Helmuth
  • PESTIEAU, Pierre
  • GAHVARI, Firouz

Abstract

This paper studies the design of a pay-as-you-go social security system in a society where fertility is in part stochastic and in part determined through capital investment. If parents' investments in children are publicly observable, pension benefits must be linked positively to the the level of investment, and payroll taxes negatively to the number of children. The outcome is characterized by full insurance with all parents, regardless of their number of children, enjoying identical consumption levels. Without observability, benefits must increase, and payroll taxes decrease, with the number of children. The second-best level of investment in children, and the resulting average fertility rate, are less than their corresponding first-best levels.

Suggested Citation

  • CREMER, Helmuth & PESTIEAU, Pierre & GAHVARI, Firouz, 2004. "Pensions with endogenous and stochastic fertility," CORE Discussion Papers 2004067, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2004067
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Helmuth Cremer & Firouz Gahvari & Pierre Pestieau, 2011. "Stochastic Fertility, Moral Hazard, and the Design of Pay-As-You-Go Pension Plans," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 57(2), pages 332-348, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2013. "Childbearing Age, Family Allowances, and Social Security," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 385-413, October.
    2. Spataro, Luca & Renström, Thomas I., 2012. "Optimal taxation, critical-level utilitarianism and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(9-10), pages 727-738.
    3. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00653997 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Julio Dávila, 2011. "Optimal population and education," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11069, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    5. Cremer, Helmuth & Gahvari, Firouz & Pestieau, Pierre, 2011. "Fertility, human capital accumulation, and the pension system," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1272-1279.
    6. Peter J. Stauvermann & Ronald R. Kumar, 2016. "Sustainability of A Pay-as-you-Go Pension System in A Small Open Economy with Ageing, Human Capital and Endogenous Fertility," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 2-20, February.
    7. Firouz Gahvari, 2009. "Pensions and fertility: in search of a link," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(4), pages 418-442, August.
    8. Martin Werding, 2014. "Children are costly, but raising them may pay," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(8), pages 253-276, January.
    9. Giam Pietro Cipriani & Miltiadis Makris, 2012. "Payg Pensions And Human Capital Accumulation: Some Unpleasant Arithmetic," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80(4), pages 429-446, July.
    10. Meier, Volker & Wrede, Matthias, 2010. "Pensions, fertility, and education," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 75-93, January.
    11. Robert Fenge & Jakob Weizsäcker, 2010. "Mixing Bismarck and child pension systems: an optimum taxation approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 805-823, March.
    12. Vincenzo Galasso & Roberta Gatti & Paola Profeta, 2009. "Investing for the old age: pensions, children and savings," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(4), pages 538-559, August.
    13. C. Fan & Jie Zhang, 2013. "Differential fertility and intergenerational mobility under private versus public education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 907-941, July.
    14. Oliwia Komada, 2015. "Children as a public good in PAYG pension system," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 43.
    15. Helmuth Cremer & Firouz Gahvari & Pierre Pestieau, 2008. "Pensions with heterogenous individuals and endogenous fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 961-981, October.
    16. Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2011. "Childbearing Age, Family Allowances and Social Security," Working Papers hal-00612613, HAL.
    17. Concepció Patxot & Elisenda Rentería & Miguel Romero & Guadalupe Souto, 2012. "Measuring the balance of government intervention on forward and backward family transfers using NTA estimates: the modified Lee arrows," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(3), pages 442-461, June.
    18. Giam Cipriani, 2014. "Population aging and PAYG pensions in the OLG model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 251-256, January.
    19. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "Demographic Change, Institutional Settings, and Labor Supply," PGDA Working Papers 4208, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    20. Simonovits, András, 2014. "Gyermektámogatás, nyugdíj és endogén/heterogén termékenység - egy modell
      [Child support, pensions and endogenous (and heterogeneous) fertility. A model]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 672-692.
    21. Gugushvili, Alexi, 2007. "Giving the ageing of the population how can countries afford pay-as-you-go social insurance pensions?," MPRA Paper 2869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Andras Simonovits, 2013. "Savings, Child Support, Pensions and Endogenous (and Heterogeneous) Fertility," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1335, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    23. Alessandro Cigno & Annalisa Luporini, 2006. "Optimal Policy Towards Families with Di¤erent Amounts of Social Capital, in the Presence of Asymmetric Information and Stochastic Fertility," CHILD Working Papers wp03_06, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
    24. Thomas Renstrom & Luca Spataro, 2015. "An analysis on optimal taxation and on policy changes in an endogenous growth model with public expenditure," Public Finance Research Papers 12, Istituto di Economia e Finanza, DIGEF, Sapienza University of Rome.
    25. Gaggermeier, Christian, 2006. "Pension and children : Pareto improvement with heterogeneous preferences," IAB Discussion Paper 200603, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    pay-as-you-go social security; endogenous fertility; storage; moral hazard; Samuelson’s condition;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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