IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tiu/tiucen/e2eaadb6-eabf-4bca-80d7-b235a6ecff69.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Family Size, Looming Demographic Changes and the Efficiency of Social Security Reform

Author

Listed:
  • van Groezen, B.J.A.M.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Leers, T.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Meijdam, A.C.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper analyses the eeffects of ageing and child support in a model with endogenous fertility and Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) pensions. First, we show that the endogeneity of fertility makes society vulnerable to both pessimistic beliefs and changes in life expectancy. In particular, we show that the private fertility choice may not coincide with the social optimum, due to the existence of two external effects of a child on society as a whole. The market outcome without government intervention is efficient, however, as both externalities exactly cancel out in that case. If the government wants to redistribute towards the old, it cannot replicate the command optimum by merely applying lump-sum transfers, but rather needs a child allowance scheme to effectively alter the number of offspring chosen by households. Finally, we analyse whether a Pareto-improving social security reform is possible. It is shown that a mere reduction of the PAYG-scheme cannot be Pareto-improving, but a combined policy of decreasing the PAYG-tax and introducing child allowances can be.

Suggested Citation

  • van Groezen, B.J.A.M. & Leers, T. & Meijdam, A.C., 2000. "Family Size, Looming Demographic Changes and the Efficiency of Social Security Reform," Discussion Paper 2000-27, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:e2eaadb6-eabf-4bca-80d7-b235a6ecff69
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/535042/27.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pascal Belan & Philippe Michel & Pierre Pestieau, 1998. "Pareto-Improving Social Security Reform," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 23(2), pages 119-125, December.
    2. Gary S. Becker & H. Gregg Lewis, 1974. "Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Chapters,in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 81-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Homburg, Stefan, 1990. "The Efficiency of Unfunded Pension Schemes," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 640-647.
    4. Bental, Benjamin, 1989. "The Old Age Security Hypothesis and Optimal Population Growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 1(4), pages 285-301.
    5. FranÚois Bourguignon, 1999. "The cost of children: May the collective approach to household behavior help?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 503-521.
    6. Cigno, Alessandro, 1992. "Children and Pensions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 5(3), pages 175-183, August.
    7. Browning, Edgar K, 1975. "Why the Social Insurance Budget Is Too Large in a Democracy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 373-388, September.
    8. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, March.
    9. Folbre, Nancy, 1994. "Children as Public Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 86-90, May.
    10. Corneo, Giacomo & Marquardt, Marko, 2000. "Public pensions, unemployment insurance, and growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 293-311, February.
    11. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E O, 1988. "Social Contracts as Assets: A Possible Solution to the Time-Consistency Problem," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 662-677, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin Werding, 2006. "Kinderrente und Vorsorgepflicht - der ifo-Vorschlag zur Lösung der demographischen Krise des Rentensystems," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(07), pages 44-53, April.
    2. Cremer, Helmuth & Gahvari, Firouz & Pestieau, Pierre, 2011. "Fertility, human capital accumulation, and the pension system," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1272-1279.
    3. Cremer, Helmuth & Gahvari, Firouz & Pestieau, Pierre, 2006. "Pensions with endogenous and stochastic fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(12), pages 2303-2321, December.
    4. Robert Fenge & Volker Meier, 2005. "Pensions and fertility incentives," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 28-48, February.
    5. Firouz Gahvari, 2009. "Pensions and fertility: in search of a link," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(4), pages 418-442, August.
    6. Theo Leers & Lex Meijdam & Harrie A. A Verbon, 2001. "The Politics of Pension Reform under Ageing," CESifo Working Paper Series 521, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Leers, T., 2001. "Public pensions and population ageing : An economic analysis of fertility, migration and social-security policy," Other publications TiSEM 0c2c876f-d263-4d1e-b820-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    child allowances; ageing; pensions; endogenous fertility; rumours; overlapping generations; social security reform;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:e2eaadb6-eabf-4bca-80d7-b235a6ecff69. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Broekman). General contact details of provider: http://center.uvt.nl .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.