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Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Marcel Mérette

    () (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa)

  • Patrick Georges

    () (Graduate School of Public and International Affairs,University of Ottawa)

Abstract

This paper develops a multi-country overlapping-generations general equilibrium model to gauge the economic impacts of demographic changes in the global economy and its transmission effects on different countries. Although severe demographic pressures contribute to significantly lower real GDP per capita across several regions in the world, globalisation through international trade generates an improvement in the terms of trade of older OECD countries, which sustains their real consumption per capita, while globalisation through capital flows stimulates capital deepening and therefore growth in younger countries such as India and various parts of the Rest of the World. The general equilibrium nature of the ageing process is crucial to understand the net foreign asset dynamics of countries during the demographic transition, and this is particularly relevant for a country like China that is caught, in the global economy, between relatively older and younger countries. On this regard China, unlike older countries, does not benefit from a terms of trade improvement which could otherwise sustain its consumption, nor does it benefit, unlike India, from capital deepening, which could otherwise sustain its GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Mérette & Patrick Georges, 2009. "Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis," Working Papers 0903E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:0903e
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms," FEP Working Papers 504, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    2. Willem Devriendt & Freddy Heylen, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Demographic Change In An Olg Model For A Small Open Economy - The Case Of Belgium -," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/931, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:02:n:s021759081550068x is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of population ageing on economic growth: an in-depth bibliometric analysis," FEP Working Papers 505, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    5. Michele Catalano & Emilia Pezzolla, 2016. "The effects of education and aging in an OLG model: long-run growth in France, Germany and Italy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(4), pages 757-800, November.
    6. repec:bla:rdevec:v:21:y:2017:i:3:p:909-934 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inequality Demographic transition; ageing; globalisation; overlapping generations; computable general equilibrium modeling;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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