IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis

  • Marcel Mérette

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa)

  • Patrick Georges

    ()

    (Graduate School of Public and International Affairs,University of Ottawa)

This paper develops a multi-country overlapping-generations general equilibrium model to gauge the economic impacts of demographic changes in the global economy and its transmission effects on different countries. Although severe demographic pressures contribute to significantly lower real GDP per capita across several regions in the world, globalisation through international trade generates an improvement in the terms of trade of older OECD countries, which sustains their real consumption per capita, while globalisation through capital flows stimulates capital deepening and therefore growth in younger countries such as India and various parts of the Rest of the World. The general equilibrium nature of the ageing process is crucial to understand the net foreign asset dynamics of countries during the demographic transition, and this is particularly relevant for a country like China that is caught, in the global economy, between relatively older and younger countries. On this regard China, unlike older countries, does not benefit from a terms of trade improvement which could otherwise sustain its consumption, nor does it benefit, unlike India, from capital deepening, which could otherwise sustain its GDP growth.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.socialsciences.uottawa.ca/sites/default/files/public/eco/fra/documents/0903E.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Ottawa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0903E.

as
in new window

Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:0903e
Contact details of provider: Postal: PO Box 450, Station A, Ottawa, Ontario, K1N 6N5
Phone: (613) 562-5753
Fax: (613) 562-5999
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.uottawa.ca/eco/eng/index.aspEmail:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Duclos, Jean-Yves & Makdissi, Paul & Wodon, Quentin, 2003. "Poverty-Efficient Transfer Programs: The Role of Targeting and Allocation Rules," Cahiers de recherche 0305, CIRPEE.
  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, June.
  3. Maxime Fougère & Simon Harvey & Jean Mercenier & Marcel Merette, . "Population Ageing, Time allocation and Human Capital: a General Equilibrium Analysis for Canada," EcoMod2007 23900026, EcoMod.
  4. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Serdar Sayan & Turalay Kenc, 1998. "Transmission of Demographic Shock Effects from Large to Small Countries : An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 985, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  6. Axel B�Rsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
  7. Guest, Ross, 2007. "Innovations in the macroeconomic modelling of population ageing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 101-119, January.
  8. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2002. "Aging and International Capital Flows," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 02-27, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  9. David M. Cutler & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Rising Inequality? Changes in the Distribution of Income and Consumption in the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 3964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Paul Makdissi & Stéphane Mussard, 2008. "Analyzing the impact of indirect tax reforms on rank-dependent social welfare functions: a positional dominance approach," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 385-399, April.
  11. King, Mervyn A., 1983. "Welfare analysis of tax reforms using household data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 183-214, July.
  12. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  13. Fougere, Maxime & Mercenier, Jean & Merette, Marcel, 2007. "A sectoral and occupational analysis of population ageing in Canada using a dynamic CGE overlapping generations model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 690-711, July.
  14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
  15. Makdissi, Paul & Groleau, Yves, 2002. "Que pouvons-nous apprendre des profils de pauvreté canadiens?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 78(2), pages 257-286, Juin.
  16. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
  17. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Lanjouw, Peter & Ravallion, Martin, 1999. "Benefit Incidence, Public Spending Reforms, and the Timing of Program Capture," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 13(2), pages 257-73, May.
  19. Atkinson, Anthony B., 1970. "On the measurement of inequality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-263, September.
  20. Shorrocks, Anthony F, 1983. "Ranking Income Distributions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 50(197), pages 3-17, February.
  21. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
  22. Feroli, Michael, 2006. "Demography and the U.S. current account deficit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:0903e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Ritchot)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.