IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/27683.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asymmetric demographic shocks and institutions: The impact on international capital flows and welfare

Author

Listed:
  • Arezki, Rabah

Abstract

This paper examines the consequences of an asymmetric negative fertility shock on capital formation, saving/investment imbalance, and welfare. The framework of analysis is a Diamond-type overlapping-generations small open economy with capital market imperfection. The capital market imperfection is modelled through a symmetric wedge between foreign investor and domestic investor return on capital. The shock is transmitted to the small open economy depending on whether the wedge is below a given threshold. If the wedge is not too high, capital first flows in the small open economy to exploit the di¤erence in returns on capital. After the shock has occurred, capital is repatriated in order to �nance the old age consumption of rest of the world investors. If capital flows internationally, lifetime utility in the small open economy decreases unambiguously for individuals born one period before the shock occurs. Provided that the small open economy is initially below its golden rule, individuals born after the time the shock has occurred experience an increase in their lifetime utility.

Suggested Citation

  • Arezki, Rabah, 2010. "Asymmetric demographic shocks and institutions: The impact on international capital flows and welfare," MPRA Paper 27683, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27683
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27683/1/MPRA_paper_27683.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-369, May.
    2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    4. Shleifer, Andrei & Wolfenzon, Daniel, 2002. "Investor protection and equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 3-27, October.
    5. Turalay Kenc & Serdar Sayan, 1998. "Transmission of Demographic Shock Effects from Large to Small," GE, Growth, Math methods 9804001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Rabah, Arezki, 2011. "Demography, credit and institutions: A global perspective," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 79-93, June.
    7. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    8. Galor, Oded, 1986. "Time preference and international labor migration," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rabah, Arezki, 2011. "Demography, credit and institutions: A global perspective," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 79-93, June.
    2. Fedotenkov, I., 2012. "Pensions and ageing in a globalizing world. International spillover effects via trade and factor mobility," Other publications TiSEM 8830bc21-4138-4479-8459-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Henry, Peter B. & Lorentzen, Peter Lombard, 2003. "Domestic Capital Market Reform and Access to Global Finance: Making Markets Work," Research Papers 1820, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    2. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Arezki, Rabah & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Toscani, Frederik, 2019. "The shifting natural wealth of nations: The role of market orientation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 228-245.
    4. Daude, Christian & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "The pecking order of cross-border investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 94-119, January.
    5. Patrick GEORGES & Marcel MERETTE, 2009. "Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis," EcoMod2009 21500035, EcoMod.
    6. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    7. Arezki, Rabah & Toscani, Frederik & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2016. "Shifting Frontiers in Global Resource Wealth: The Role of Policies and Institutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 11553, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Papaioannou, Elias, 2009. "What drives international financial flows? Politics, institutions and other determinants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 269-281, March.
    9. Rabah, Arezki, 2011. "Demography, credit and institutions: A global perspective," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 79-93, June.
    10. Hendrik P. van Dalen, 2007. "Global Aging and Economic Convergence: A Real Option or Still a Case of Science Fiction?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-051/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Marchiori, Luca, 2011. "Demographic trends and international capital flows in an integrated world," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2100-2120, September.
    12. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    13. Keskinsoy, Bilal, 2017. "Lucas Paradox in The Long Run," MPRA Paper 78126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Azariadis, Costas & Stachurski, John, 2005. "Poverty Traps," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, Elsevier.
    15. Antonio Ciccone & Giovanni Peri & Douglas Almond, "undated". "Capital, Wages, and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 152, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    16. Mare Sarr & Erwin Bulte & Chris Meissner & Tim Swanson, 2011. "On the looting of nations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 353-380, September.
    17. Rabah Arezki & Klaus Deininger & Harris Selod, 2015. "What Drives the Global "Land Rush"?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 29(2), pages 207-233.
    18. Brian Piper, 2014. "Factor-Specific Productivity," Working Papers 1401, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    19. Rogers, Mark Llewellyn, 2008. "Directly unproductive schooling: How country characteristics affect the impact of schooling on growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 356-385, February.
    20. Pessôa, Samuel de Abreu, 1999. "Um modelo de acumulação de capital físico e humano: um diálogo com a economia do trabalho," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 345, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population aging; capital market imperfection; open economy; capital flows; welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27683. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.