IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Population Aging, Savings Behavior and Capital Markets

  • Axel H. Boersch-Supan
  • Joachim K. Winter

Population aging is just beginning to hit the industrialized countries in full force, and it will have a tremendous impact on capital markets. In this paper, we argue that the capital market effects of population aging are particularly strong in continental European economies such as Germany, France, and Italy, with their large and ailing pay-as-you-go public pension systems, relatively thin capital markets, and poor capital performance. The younger generations in these countries are quite aware of the need to provide for more retirement income through own private saving, and these effects will be accentuated by fundamental pension reforms that aim at more pre-funding. Population aging changes households' savings behavior and portfolio composition, and much more assets will be invested on the stock market. Capital markets will grow in size, and active institutional investors such as pension funds will become more important in continental European countries. These changes are likely to have beneficial side effects in terms of improved capital efficiency, total factor productivity, and growth. Looking at the effects of population aging on savings behavior and capital markets therefore adds a new dimension to the continuing debate about advantages and disadvantages of pay-as-you-go and fully funded pension systems.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8561.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8561.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8561
Note: AG PE
Contact details of provider: Postal:
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.

Phone: 617-868-3900
Web page: http://www.nber.org
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine & Norman Loayza, 1999. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 56, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
  3. Holmstrom, Bengt & Tirole, Jean, 1993. "Market Liquidity and Performance Monitoring," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 678-709, August.
  4. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Reil-Held, Anette & Rodepeter, Ralf & Schnabel, Reinhold & Winter, Joachim, 2001. "The German Savings Puzzle," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 15-38, March.
  5. Januszewski, Silke I. & Köke, F. Jens & Winter, Joachim, 2002. "Product market competition, corporate governance and firm performance: An empirical analysis for Germany," Munich Reprints in Economics 19548, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  6. Loayza, N. & Schmidt, K. & Serven, L., 1999. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," Papers 47, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  7. Jeffrey Wurgler, 1999. "Financial Markets And The Allocation Of Capital," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm123, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2001.
  8. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1996. "Financial Dependence and Growth," NBER Working Papers 5758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Jensen, Michael C & Murphy, Kevin J, 1990. "Performance Pay and Top-Management Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(2), pages 225-64, April.
  10. Marie Bohatá & Martina Pechová, 1999. "řízení a správa společností
    [Corporate governance]
    ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 1999(5).
  11. Florian Heiss & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2002. "Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return," MEA discussion paper series 02023, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  12. David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Risk sharing and transition costs in the reform of pension systems in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 251-286, October.
  13. Michele Boldrin & Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno & Franco Peracchi, 1999. "The future of pensions in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 287-320, October.
  14. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
  15. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Eymann, Angelika, 0000. "Household Portfolios in Germany," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 00-15, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  16. Brunner, Johann K., 1996. "Transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully funded pension system: The case of differing individuals and intragenerational fairness," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 131-146, April.
  17. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
  18. Andrew A. Samwick, 2000. "Is Pension Reform Conducive to Higher Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 264-272, May.
  19. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Eymann, Angelika, 2000. "Household Portfolios in Germany," Discussion Papers 603, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
  20. Klaus Neusser & Maurice Kugler, 1998. "Manufacturing Growth And Financial Development: Evidence From Oecd Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 638-646, November.
  21. Dennis C. Mueller & B. Burcin Yurtoglu, 2000. "Country Legal Environments and Corporate Investment Performance," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(2), pages 187-220, 05.
  22. Pound, John, 1988. "Proxy contests and the efficiency of shareholder oversight," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 237-265, January.
  23. Disney, Richard, 2000. "Crises in Public Pension Programmes in OECD: What Are the Reform Options?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages F1-23, February.
  24. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
  25. Tito Boeri & Axel Börsch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2001. "Would you like to shrink the welfare state? A survey of European citizens," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 7-50, 04.
  26. Kim Jong-Il & Lau Lawrence J., 1994. "The Sources of Economic Growth of the East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 235-271, September.
  27. Schnabel, Reinhold, 1999. "The Golden Years of Social Security -- Life-cycle Income, Pensions and Savings in Germany," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 99-40, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  28. Schnabel, Reinhold, 1998. "The Declining Participation in the German PAYG-Pension System," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 99-42, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  29. Wenger, E & Kaserer, C, 1997. "The German System of Corporate Governance - A Model Which Should Not Be Imitated," Papers 14, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
  30. Borsch-Supan, Axel, 1992. "Saving and Consumption Patterns of the Elderly: The German Case," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 5(4), pages 289-303.
  31. Tullio Jappelli & Franco Modigliani, 1998. "The Age-Saving Profile and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," CSEF Working Papers 09, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  32. Stephen L. Nesbitt, 1994. "LONG-TERM REWARDS FROM SHAREHOLDER ACTIVISM: A STUDY OF THE "CalPERS EFFECT"," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 6(4), pages 75-80.
  33. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
  34. Sheetal K. Chand & Albert Jaeger, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund.
  35. Jeremy Edwards & Marcus Nibler, 2000. "Corporate governance in Germany: the role of banks and ownership concentration," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 237-267, October.
  36. Guercio, Diane Del & Hawkins, Jennifer, 1999. "The motivation and impact of pension fund activism," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 293-340, June.
  37. Brugiavini, Agar & Padula, Mario, 2001. "Too much for retirement? Saving in Italy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 39-60, March.
  38. Young, Alwyn, 1994. "Lessons from the East Asian NICS: A contrarian view," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 964-973, April.
  39. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Eymann, Angelika, 2000. "Household portfolios in Germany," Papers 00-15, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
  40. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8561. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.