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Economic consequences of low fertility in Europe

  • Bloom, David E.
  • Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

This paper focuses on possible economic consequences of low fertility in Europe. It summarizes a selection of papers that were presented at a conference at the University of St. Gallen in April 2008. This introduction also reviews the history of falling fertility in Europe and the literature that explores its causes, its potential implications, and possible policy responses. It summarizes the evolution of thinking about the relationship between population growth and economic development, with attention to recent work on the mechanisms through which fertility decline can spur economic growth if the necessary supporting conditions are met. The paper also identifies some of the challenges of population aging that are associated with low fertility and suggests that there may be less reason for alarm than has been suggested by some observers.

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Paper provided by University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID) in its series FZID Discussion Papers with number 11-2010.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:fziddp:112010
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  1. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
  2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend," NBER Working Papers 13583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Tomas Sobotka & Laurent Toulemon, 2008. "Overview Chapter 4: Changing family and partnership behaviour," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(6), pages 85-138, July.
  4. Tomas Frejka & Tomas Sobotka & Jan M. Hoem & Laurent Toulemon, 2008. "Summary and general conclusions: Childbearing Trends and Policies in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(2), pages 5-14, July.
  5. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore & Younghwan Song, 2006. "The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States," NBER Working Papers 12688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680.
  7. Paul R. Ehrlich, 2008. "Demography and Policy: A View from Outside the Discipline," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(1), pages 103-113.
  8. John Bongaarts, 2002. "The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(3), pages 419-443.
  9. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2009. "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," NBER Working Papers 14820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler & Gunnar Andersson & Hans Lundström, 2007. "Approaching the Limit: Long-Term Trends in Late and Very Late Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 149-170.
  11. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," PGDA Working Papers 4108, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  12. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  13. Zamac, Jovan & Hallberg, Daniel & Lindh, Thomas, 2008. "Low fertility and long run growth in an economy with a large public sector," Arbetsrapport 2008:11, Institute for Futures Studies.
  14. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2005. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," PGDA Working Papers 0105, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  15. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521725200 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. John Bryant, 2007. "Theories of Fertility Decline and the Evidence from Development Indicators," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 101-127.
  17. Jan M. Hoem, 2008. "Overview Chapter 8: The impact of public policies on European fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(10), pages 249-260, July.
  18. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2008. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 3108, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  19. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
  20. World Demographic and Ageing Forum & Hans Groth & Reiner Klingholz & Martin Wehling, 2009. "Future Demographic Challenges in Europe: The Urgency to Improve the Management of Dementia," Journal Article y:2009:i:1, World Demographic and Ageing Forum.
  21. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521898010 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Tomas Frejka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 2: Parity distribution and completed family size in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(4), pages 47-72, July.
  23. Malthus, Thomas Robert, 1798. "An Essay on the Principle of Population," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number malthus1798.
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