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Fiscal Policy and Crowding Out in Developing Asia

Listed author(s):
  • Seok-Kyun Hur

    (College of Business and Economics, Chung-Ang University, 221, Heukseok-dong, Dongjak-gu, Seoul 156-756, Korea)

  • Sushanta Mallick

    (School of Business and Management, Queen Mary University of London, Francis Bancroft Building, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, England)

  • Donghyun Park

    (Macroeconomics and Finance Research Division, Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank, 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, Metro Manila, Philippines 1550)

Fiscal stimulus programs have contributed substantially to developing Asia's faster and stronger-than-expected recovery from the global financial crisis. This may lead to political pressures for greater use of countercyclical fiscal policy in the postcrisis period. However, the countercyclical effectiveness of fiscal policy depends critically on the extent to which it crowds out private investment and consumption. In the medium term, the use of fiscal policy to promote rebalancing toward domestic demand may require a moderate fiscal expansion. The extent of crowding out will impinge upon the effectiveness of such fiscal expansion in boosting domestic demand. In this paper we perform empirical analysis on both cross-country panel data and country-specific time-series data to investigate crowding out in the region. Overall, our empirical evidence is decidedly mixed, with no clear evidence of either crowding out or crowding in. The evidence fails to provide compelling support for greater use of fiscal policy for countercyclical purposes. In the context of rebalancing, fiscal expansion will not, in and of itself, contribute to a more balanced demand and output structure. That would require using fiscal policy to help remove structural impediments to private consumption and investment.

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Article provided by in its journal Environment and Planning C.

Volume (Year): 32 (2014)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 1117-1132

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Handle: RePEc:sae:envirc:v:32:y:2014:i:6:p:1117-1132
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