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Why Fiscal Stimulus is Likely to Work

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  • Antonio Fatás
  • Ilian Mihov

Abstract

We provide an overview of the effectiveness of fiscal policy actions by summarizing evidence from empirical and theoretical studies. Empirically, expansionary policy is found to have output multipliers greater than one. Given current economic conditions, we argue that the fiscal cost of not stabilizing the economy is likely to be much higher than the cost of a deficit that helps the economy go faster towards a recovery path.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "Why Fiscal Stimulus is Likely to Work," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 57-73, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:12:y:2009:i:1:p:57-73
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2362.2009.01235.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
    2. Wyplosz, Charles, 2005. "Fiscal Policy: Institutions versus Rules," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 191, pages 64-78, January.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    4. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2002. "Passive Savers and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan," Working Paper Series WP02-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Jesus Bejarano & Andres Gonzalez & Clark Granger-Castaño & Franz Hamann & Yurany Hernández-Turca & Juan Manuel Julio-Román & Martha López & Juan C. , 2019. "La política fiscal y la estabilización macroeconómica en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 90, pages 1-60, April.
    2. Philipp Heimberger, 2017. "Did fiscal consolidation cause the double-dip recession in the euro area?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 439-458, July.
    3. Simon Voigts, 2016. "VAT multipliers and pass-through dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-026, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    5. Heinrich, Tobias & Kobayashi, Yoshiharu & Bryant, Kristin A., 2016. "Public Opinion and Foreign Aid Cuts in Economic Crises," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 66-79.
    6. Artem Vdovychenko, 2018. "Estimating the Fiscal Impulse in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 245, pages 45-63.
    7. Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Lim, Jamus J. & Ohnsorge, Franziska L., 2020. "Why do fiscal multipliers depend on fiscal Positions?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 109-125.
    8. Carnazza, Giovanni & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "The cyclically-adjusted primary balance: A novel approach for the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1123-1145.
    9. Kalinowski, Thomas, 2013. "Crisis management and the varieties of capitalism: Fiscal stimulus packages and the transformation of East Asian state-led capitalism since 2008," Discussion Papers, Project Group Modes of Economic Governance SP III 2013-501, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    10. Mthokozisi Mlilo & Umakrishnan Kollamparambi, 2016. "Fiscal policy, employment, and output in South Africa: An open economy analysis," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(3), pages 11-23, June.
    11. Fatás Antonio & Mihov Ilian, 2012. "Fiscal Policy as a Stabilization Tool," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-68, October.
    12. Hellebrandt, T. & Posen, A.S. & Tolle, M., 2012. "Does monetary cooperation or confrontation lead to successful fiscal consolidation?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 131-142, April.
    13. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Green Recovery Programmes. Conceptual Framing and a Review of the Empirical Literature," WIFO Working Papers 646, WIFO.
    14. Sebastian Gechert & Henner Will, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers: A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 97-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Adam S. Posen, 2010. "The Central Banker's Case for Doing More," Policy Briefs PB10-24, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    16. Yasuharu Iwata, 2011. "The Government Spending Multiplier and Fiscal Financing: Insights from Japan," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 231-264, June.

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