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Estimating the Fiscal Impulse in Ukraine

Author

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  • Artem Vdovychenko

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

Abstract

This paper estimates the fiscal impulse for Ukraine following the methodology of the OECD, which disaggregates budget revenues and expenditures into categories that are driven by economic cycles. To estimate the fiscal impulse the author calculates both long-term and short-term elasticities of various budget items with respect to GDP. This approach allows the author (i) to identify the fiscal policy response to economic crises in Ukraine in 2008-2009 and in 2014, and (ii) to reveal those budget items that remain sensitive to the fluctuations in the business cycle. The fiscal policy response to the 2014 crisis is found to be significantly tighter than the response to the crisis of 2008-2009. In addition, corporate income tax shows the strongest response to economic cycles among budget revenue categories, while VAT has the greatest contribution to the cyclical component of Ukraine's budget balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Artem Vdovychenko, 2018. "Estimating the Fiscal Impulse in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 245, pages 45-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukb:journl:y:2018:i:245:p:45-63
    DOI: 10.26531/vnbu2018.245.03
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    File URL: https://journal.bank.gov.ua/en/article/2018/245/03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
    2. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "Why Fiscal Stimulus is Likely to Work," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 57-73, May.
    3. Martin Larch & Alessandro Turrini, 2009. "The cyclically-adjusted budget balance in EU fiscal policy making : A love at first sight turned into a mature relationship," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 374, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Anton Grui & Artem Vdovychenko, 2019. "Quarterly Projection Model for Ukraine," Working Papers 03/2019, National Bank of Ukraine.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal stance; fiscal impulse; dynamic least squares; autoregressive distributed lag model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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