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Cyclically neutral generational accounting

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  • Bonin, Holger
  • Patxot, Concepció
  • Souto, Guadalupe

Abstract

This paper introduces a methodological innovation into Generational Accounting. By incorporating cyclically-adjusted balances into the forward-looking budget projections underlying the concept we isolate pure policy effects, which render comparisons of the fiscal sustainability indicators obtained across time and countries truly meaningful. We also show that a demographic effect and a debt effect may bias fiscal sustainability measures over time, and establish a routine to control for these effects in the generational accounting framework. An empirical application for Spain illustrates that our proposed decomposition of indicators is empirically relevant. Standard generational accounting suggests that fiscal sustainability in Spain improved substantially in preparing for EMU. However, calculation of the pure policy effects reveals that this has not been the case.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonin, Holger & Patxot, Concepció & Souto, Guadalupe, 2013. "Cyclically neutral generational accounting," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-099, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:13099
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Concepció Patxot & Elisenda Rentería & Miguel Romero & Guadalupe Souto, 2012. "Measuring the balance of government intervention on forward and backward family transfers using NTA estimates: the modified Lee arrows," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(3), pages 442-461, June.
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    15. Volker Börstinghaus & Georg Hirte, 2002. "Generational Accounting versus Computable General Equilibrium," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 58(3), pages 227-243, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Sustainability; Demographic Ageing; Cyclically-Adjusted Budget Balance; Spain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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