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microWELT: Microsimulation Projection of Full Generational Accounts for Austria and Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Spielauer

    (WIFO)

  • Thomas Horvath
  • Marian Fink
  • Gemma Abio
  • Guadalupe Souto Nieves
  • Concepció Patxot
  • Tanja Istenič

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of population ageing on the inter- and intra-generational redistribution of income from a longitudinal perspective, comparing lifetime measures of income and transfers by generation, gender, education and family characteristics. For this end, we incorporate new disaggregated National Transfer Account (NTA) data and concepts of generational accounting into the dynamic microsimulation model microWELT. This bottom-up modelling strategy makes it possible to project, for each generation and socio-demographic group, the net present value of expected transfers. microWELT delivers detailed sociodemographic projections consistent with Eurostat population projections but additionally providing the required detail concerning the changes in the population composition by education and family characteristics. Also, the model allows incorporating mechanisms to balance budgets over time in response to population ageing. Our study compares the results for Spain and Austria. We find significant differences in the role of private and public transfers related to parenthood. While in both countries parents privately transfer substantially more money to others, the Austrian welfare state fully compensates for these differences through public transfers to parents. Such compensation is not observed in Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Spielauer & Thomas Horvath & Marian Fink & Gemma Abio & Guadalupe Souto Nieves & Concepció Patxot & Tanja Istenič, 2020. "microWELT: Microsimulation Projection of Full Generational Accounts for Austria and Spain," WIFO Working Papers 618, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2020:i:618
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Gemma Abío & Montserrat Botey & Alexia Prskawetz & Joze Sambt & Meritxell Solé Juvés & Guadalupe Souto & Lili Vargha & Concepció Patxot, 2019. "Welfare state winners and losers in ageing societies," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 17(1), pages 009-036.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ronald Lee & David McCarthy & James Sefton & Jože Sambt, 2017. "Full Generational Accounts: What Do We Give to the Next Generation?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43(4), pages 695-720, December.
    4. Concepció Patxot & Elisenda Rentería & Miguel Romero & Guadalupe Souto, 2012. "Measuring the balance of government intervention on forward and backward family transfers using NTA estimates: the modified Lee arrows," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(3), pages 442-461, June.
    5. Martin Spielauer & Thomas Horvath & Marian Fink, 2020. "microWELT: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for the Study of Welfare Transfer Flows in Ageing Societies from a Comparative Welfare State Perspective," WIFO Working Papers 609, WIFO.
    6. Bonin, Holger & Patxot, Concepció, 2004. "Generational Accounting as a Tool to Assess Fiscal Sustainability: An Overview of the Methodology," IZA Discussion Papers 990, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Auerbach, Alan J. & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Leibfritz, Willi (ed.), 1999. "Generational Accounting around the World," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226032139, December.
    8. Martin Spielauer & Thomas Horvath & Marian Fink & Gemma Abio & Guadalupe Souto Nieves & Concepció Patxot & Tanja Istenič, 2020. "microWELT: Microsimulation Projection of Indicators of the Economic Effects of Population Ageing Based on Disaggregated National Transfer Accounts," WIFO Working Papers 612, WIFO.
    9. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number auer99-1, March.
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    Keywords

    Microsimulation; Education; Demographic Change; National Transfer Accounts;
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