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microWELT: Microsimulation Projection of Indicators of the Economic Effects of Population Ageing Based on Disaggregated National Transfer Accounts

Author

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  • Martin Spielauer

    (WIFO)

  • Thomas Horvath
  • Marian Fink
  • Gemma Abio
  • Guadalupe Souto Nieves
  • Concepció Patxot
  • Tanja Istenič

Abstract

This paper studies how changes in the population composition by education and family characteristics impact on indicators of the economic effects of population ageing based on National Transfer Accounts (NTAs). NTAs constitute cross-sectional per-capita age-profiles of the key variables of national accounts consumption, income, saving, and public transfers, incorporating an estimation of private transfers. A variety of indicators based on NTA data combined with population projections was developed in the literature, of which we have selected two for our analysis: the Support Ratio (SR) and the Impact Index (IMP). We complement existing projections by using new disaggregated NTA data by education and family type, contrasting the results to the same indicators based on NTAs by age. Our projection analysis is performed using the dynamic microsimulation model microWELT. The model provides the required detailed socio-demographic projections and incorporates the NTA accounting framework. Our results show that indicators based on disaggregated data can give a very distinct picture of the economic effects of population ageing, as the burden of ageing is alleviated by the education expansion. Our study compares results for Austria and Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Spielauer & Thomas Horvath & Marian Fink & Gemma Abio & Guadalupe Souto Nieves & Concepció Patxot & Tanja Istenič, 2020. "microWELT: Microsimulation Projection of Indicators of the Economic Effects of Population Ageing Based on Disaggregated National Transfer Accounts," WIFO Working Papers 612, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2020:i:612
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    2. Ronald Lee & David McCarthy & James Sefton & Jože Sambt, 2017. "Full Generational Accounts: What Do We Give to the Next Generation?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43(4), pages 695-720, December.
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    4. Martin Spielauer & Thomas Horvath & Marian Fink, 2020. "microWELT: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for the Study of Welfare Transfer Flows in Ageing Societies from a Comparative Welfare State Perspective," WIFO Working Papers 609, WIFO.
    5. J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    6. Alexia Prskawetz & Jože Sambt, 2014. "Economic support ratios and the demographic dividend in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(34), pages 963-1010.
    7. Martin Spielauer, 2005. "Concentration of Reproduction in Austria: General Trends and Differentials by Educational Attainment and Urban-Rural Setting," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 3(1), pages 171-195.
    8. Martin Spielauer, 2005. "Concentration of reproduction in Austria: general trends and differentials by educational attainment and urban-rural setting," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2005-012, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Martin Spielauer & Thomas Horvath & Walter Hyll & Marian Fink, 2020. "microWELT: Socio-Demographic Parameters and Projections for Austria, Spain, Finland, and the UK," WIFO Working Papers 611, WIFO.
    10. Holly Sutherland & Francesco Figari, 2013. "EUROMOD: the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(6), pages 4-26.
    11. Elisenda Rentería & Guadalupe Souto & Iván Mejía-Guevara & Concepció Patxot, 2016. "The Effect of Education on the Demographic Dividend," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 42(4), pages 651-671, December.
    12. Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Concepció Patxot & Elisenda Rentería & Guadalupe Souto, 2013. "On the effects of public and private transfers on capital accumulation: some lessons from the NTA aggregates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1409-1430, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Spielauer & Thomas Horvath & Marian Fink & Gemma Abio & Guadalupe Souto Nieves & Concepció Patxot & Tanja Istenič, 2020. "microWELT: Microsimulation Projection of Full Generational Accounts for Austria and Spain," WIFO Working Papers 618, WIFO.

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    Keywords

    Microsimulation; Education; Demographic Change; National Transfer Accounts;
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