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Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide

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  • Caucutt, E. M.
  • Guner, N.
  • Rauh, C.

Abstract

The difference in marriage rates between black and white Americans is striking. Wilson (1987) suggests that a skewed sex ratio and higher rates of incarceration and unemployment are responsible for lower marriage rates among the black population. In this paper, we take a dynamic look at the Wilson Hypothesis. Incarceration rates and labor market prospects of black men make them riskier spouses than white men. We develop an equilibrium search model of marriage, divorce, and labor supply in which transitions between employment, unemployment, and prison differ by race, education, and gender. The model also allows for racial differences in how individuals value marriage and divorce. We estimate the model and investigate how much of the racial divide in marriage is due to the Wilson Hypothesis and how much is due to differences in preferences for marriage. We find that the Wilson Hypothesis accounts for more than three quarters of the model's racial-marriage gap. This suggests policies that improve employment opportunities and/or reduce incarceration for black men could shrink the racial-marriage gap.

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  • Caucutt, E. M. & Guner, N. & Rauh, C., 2021. "Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2160, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2160
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    2. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Ricardo Marto, 2021. "The Great Transition: Kuznets Facts for Family-Economists," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 33, Economie d'Avant Garde.
    3. Bertocchi, Graziella & Dimico, Arcangelo, 2020. "Bitter Sugar: Slavery and the Black Family," GLO Discussion Paper Series 564, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen A. Kopecky, 2019. "The Wife's Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage," Working Papers wp2019_1912, CEMFI.
    5. Edoardo Ciscato & Marion Goussé, 2024. "Matching on Gender and Sexual Orientation," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1213, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    6. Christopher Rauh & Aranu Valladares-Esteban, 2023. "On the black-white gaps in labor supply and earnings over the lifecycle in the US," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 424-449, December.
    7. Bastian Schulz & Fabian Siuda, 2020. "Marriage and Divorce: The Role of Labor Market Institutions," CESifo Working Paper Series 8508, CESifo.
    8. Graziella Bertocchi & Arcangelo Dimico, 2020. "Bitter Sugar: Slavery and the Black Family," Department of Economics 0172, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    9. Jeanne Lafortune & Corinne Low, 2023. "Collateralized Marriage," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 252-291, October.
    10. Maria Cancian, 2021. "APPAM Presidential Address: Reflections on Who Counts and Why it Matters," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 324-347, March.
    11. Bulent Guler & Amanda M. Michaud, 2024. "Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 101, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. Kla Kouadio & Moreno-Galbis Eva, 2024. "Minimum wage and racial marriage gap," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 06, Stata Users Group.
    13. Kartik B. Athreya & Grey Gordon & John Bailey Jones & Urvi Neelakantan, 2021. "Incarceration, Earnings, and Race," Working Paper 21-11`, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marriage; Race; Incarceration; Inequality; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J - Labor and Demographic Economics
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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