IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uwo/hcuwoc/20186.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy

Author

Abstract

We argue that transitional dynamics play a critical role in the evaluation of punitive incarceration reform on crime, inequality and the macroeconomy. Individuals’ past choices related to crime and employment under old policies have persistent consequences that limit their future responses to policy changes. Novel cohort evidence is provided in support of this mechanism. A quantitative model of this theory calibrated using restricted administrative data predicts nuanced, non-monotone dynamics of crime and incarceration similar to the U.S. experience following a single permanent increase in punitive incarceration in the 1980s. Increased inequality and declining employment accompany these changes and are borne unequally across generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Bulent Guler & Amanda Michaud, 2018. "Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20186, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    • Handle: RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:20186
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1148&context=economicscibc
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wolcott, Erin L., 2021. "Employment inequality: Why do the low-skilled work less now?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 161-177.
    2. Grey Gordon & John B. Jones & Urvi Neelakantan & Kartik Athreya, 2023. "Incarceration, Employment and Earnings: Dynamics and Differences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 677-697, December.
    3. Guner, Nezih & Caucutt, Elizabeth & Rauh, Christopher, 2018. "Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide," CEPR Discussion Papers 13275, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Kartik B. Athreya & Grey Gordon & John Bailey Jones & Urvi Neelakantan, 2021. "Incarceration, Earnings, and Race," Working Paper 21-11`, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:20186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://nest.uwo.ca/chcp/research/working_papers.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.