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Geographical distribution of crime in Italian provinces: a spatial econometric analysis

  • Maria Cracolici
  • Teodora Uberti

    ()

In den letzten Jahren hat die zunehmende Kriminalitätsrate der modernen Volkswirtschaften die Aufmerksamkeit der Soziologen und Ökonomen auf sich gezogen um die Ursachen zu ermitteln, die dazu führen diese Straftaten zu begehen. Das Ziel dieser Studie ist die Ursachen der Kriminellen Aktivitäten in 103 italienischen Provinzen für die Jahre 1999 und 2003 zu ermitteln. Dieses Phänomen zeichnet sich durch einige stilisierte Fakten: hohe räumliche und zeitliche Veränderlichkeit von kriminellen Aktivitäten und die Präsenz von “organisiertem Verbrechen” (z. B. Mafia und Camorra) örtlich in regionalen Gebieten eingegrenzt. Mittels der explanatory spatial data analysis (ESDA) untersucht die Studie zunächst die räumliche Struktur und Verteilung von vier verschiedenen Arten von Verbrechen: Mord, Diebstahl, Betrug und Erpressung. ESDA ermöglicht es uns wichtige geographische Dimensionen zu ermitteln und bedeutende Mikro- und Makro-regionale Aspekte von Straftaten zu unterscheiden. Weiterhin, auf der Grundlage des Becker-Ehrlich Modells, wurde ein räumlicher Querschnitt-Modell erstellt, welches Abschreckungsvariabeln, wirtschaftliche und sozio-demographische Variablen miteinbezieht, um die Ursachen zu ermitteln, gemessen bezüglich der geographischen und relationalen Nähe, welche die italienische Kriminalität für die Jahre 1999 und 2003 und ihre “benachbarten” Auswirkungen prägen. Mittels der unterschiedlichen räumlich gewichteten Matrizen zeigen die Ergebnisse, dass die sozio-ökonomischen Variablen eine relevante Auswirkung auf die Kriminellen Aktivitäten haben, aber ihre Rolle sich erheblich ändert mit Bezug auf Verbrechen gegen die Person (Mord) oder gegen Eigentum (Diebstahl, Betrug und Erpressung). Copyright Springer-Verlag 2009

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft.

Volume (Year): 29 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 1-28

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jahrfr:v:29:y:2009:i:1:p:1-28
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