IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/21-319.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Incarceration, Employment and Earnings: Dynamics and Differences

Author

Listed:
  • Grey Gordon

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

  • John B. Jones

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

  • Urvi Neelakantan

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

  • Kartik Athreya

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

Abstract

We study the dynamics of incarceration, employment, and earnings. Our hidden Markov model distinguishes between first-time and repeat incarceration, between persistent and transitory nonemployment and earnings risks, and accounts for nonresponse bias. We estimate the model via maximum likelihood using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, accounting for the large differences in incarceration rates by race, education level, and gender. First-time incarceration is associated with 33% (50%) lower expected lifetime earnings and 6 (10) fewer years of employment for Black (White) men with a high school degree. Among less-educated men, differences in incarceration and nonemployment can explain around half the Black-White lifetime earnings gap. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Grey Gordon & John B. Jones & Urvi Neelakantan & Kartik Athreya, 2023. "Incarceration, Employment and Earnings: Dynamics and Differences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 677-697, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:21-319
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.06.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2023.06.007
    Download Restriction: Access to full texts is restricted to ScienceDirect subscribers and institutional members. See https://www.sciencedirect.com/ for details.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.red.2023.06.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Trivedi, Pravin K. & Zimmer, David M., 2007. "Copula Modeling: An Introduction for Practitioners," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-111, April.
    2. Giulio Fella & Giovanni Gallipoli, 2014. "Education and Crime over the Life Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(4), pages 1484-1517.
    3. Stéphane Bonhomme & Jean-Marc Robin, 2009. "Assessing the Equalizing Force of Mobility Using Short Panels: France, 1990-2000," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(1), pages 63-92.
    4. Stéphane Bonhomme & Jean-Marc Robin, 2010. "Generalized Non-Parametric Deconvolution with an Application to Earnings Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 491-533.
    5. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    6. Manuel Arellano & Richard Blundell & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Earnings and Consumption Dynamics: A Nonlinear Panel Data Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 693-734, May.
    7. Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2004. "Income Variance Dynamics and Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 1-32, January.
    8. Jeffrey R. Kling, 2006. "Incarceration Length, Employment, and Earnings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 863-876, June.
    9. Chao Fu & Kenneth I Wolpin, 2018. "Structural Estimation of a Becker-Ehrlich Equilibrium Model of Crime: Allocating Police Across Cities to Reduce Crime," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2097-2138.
    10. Abowd, John M & Card, David, 1989. "On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 411-445, March.
    11. Mariacristina De Nardi & Giulio Fella & Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 2020. "Nonlinear Household Earnings Dynamics, Self-Insurance, and Welfare," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 890-926.
    12. Lance Lochner, 2004. "Education, Work, And Crime: A Human Capital Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(3), pages 811-843, August.
    13. Stéphane Bonhomme & Jean-Marc Robin, 2009. "Assessing the Equalizing Force of Mobility Using Short Panels: France, 1990-2000," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01027423, HAL.
    14. Fatih Guvenen, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of Labor Income Processes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 58-79, January.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j008g6g0g is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Elizabeth M. Caucutt & Nezih Guner & Christopher Rauh, 2021. "Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide," Working Papers 1300, Barcelona School of Economics.
    17. Stéphane Bonhomme & Jean-Marc Robin, 2009. "Assessing the Equalizing Force of Mobility Using Short Panels: France, 1990-2000," SciencePo Working papers hal-01027423, HAL.
    18. Stéphane Bonhomme & Jean-Marc Robin, 2009. "Assessing the equalizing force of mobility using short panels: France, 1990-2000," Post-Print hal-00308801, HAL.
    19. Bulent Guler & Amanda Michaud, 2018. "Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20186, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    20. Derek Neal & Armin Rick, 2014. "The Prison Boom and the Lack of Black Progress after Smith and Welch," NBER Working Papers 20283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Leland E. Farmer, 2021. "The discretization filter: A simple way to estimate nonlinear state space models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(1), pages 41-76, January.
    22. Stéphane Bonhomme & Jean-Marc Robin, 2009. "Assessing the equalizing force of mobility using short panels: France, 1990-2000," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00308801, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hope Bodenschatz & Gerald Eric Daniels Jr. & Jeffrey P. Thompson, 2023. "Decomposing Lifetime-Earnings Differences between White, Black, and Hispanic Families," Working Papers 23-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kartik B. Athreya & Grey Gordon & John Bailey Jones & Urvi Neelakantan, 2021. "Incarceration, Earnings, and Race," Working Paper 21-11`, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Costanza Naguib & Patrick Gagliardini, 2023. "A Semi-nonparametric Copula Model for Earnings Mobility," Diskussionsschriften dp2302, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    3. Jeremy Lise & Costas Meghir & Jean-Marc Robin, 2016. "Matching, Sorting and Wages," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 63-87, January.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/78hlmdbud88hhp5vbdddivv2hu is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Joseph Altonji & Disa Hynsjo & Ivan Vidangos, 2023. "Individual Earnings and Family Income: Dynamics and Distribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 225-250, July.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9od0s108ro is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    8. Magnac, Thierry & Pistolesi, Nicolas & Roux, Sébastien, 2013. "Post schooling human capital investments and the life cycle variance of earnings," TSE Working Papers 13-380, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    9. Jeremy Lise & Costas Meghir & Jean-Marc Robin, 2016. "Matching, Sorting, and Wages," SciencePo Working papers hal-03392023, HAL.
    10. Jeremy Lise & Costas Meghir & Jean-Marc Robin, 2013. "Mismatch, Sorting and Wage Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 18719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Fatih Guvenen & Luigi Pistaferri & Giovanni L. Violante, 2022. "Global trends in income inequality and income dynamics: New insights from GRID," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1321-1360, November.
    12. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2016. "Nonlinear panel data estimation via quantile regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 61-94, October.
    13. Jeremy Lise & Costas Meghir & Jean-Marc Robin, 2013. "Matching, Sorting and Wages," SciencePo Working papers hal-01070442, HAL.
    14. Benjamin Friedrich & Costas Meghir & Lisa Laun & Luigi Pistaferri, 2018. "Earnings Dynamics and Firm-Level Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 536, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Manuel Sanchez & Felix Wellschmied, 2020. "Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 103-126, July.
    16. Benjamin Friedrich & Costas Meghir & Lisa Laun & Luigi Pistaferri, 2018. "Earnings Dynamics and Firm-Level Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 536, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/32h1padvln887b3u0epa07o4ub is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Quantile Selection Models With an Application to Understanding Changes in Wage Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 1-28, January.
    19. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9od0s108ro is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:hal:journl:hal-01070442 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Mariacristina De Nardi & Giulio Fella, 2017. "Saving and Wealth Inequality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 280-300, October.
    22. Jeremy Lise & Costas Meghir & Jean-Marc Robin, 2013. "Mismatch, Sorting and Wages Dynamics," SciencePo Working papers hal-03473908, HAL.
    23. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4po7er2pp49baoh37bjdkluouu is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Magnac, Thierry & Roux, Sébastien, 2021. "Heterogeneity and wage inequalities over the life cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    25. Manuel Sanchez & Felix Wellschmied, 2020. "Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 103-126, July.
    26. De Giorgi, Giacomo & Gambetti, Luca & Naguib, Costanza, 2020. "Life-Cycle Inequality: Blacks And Whites Differentials In Life Expectancy, Savings, Income, And Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 15182, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    earnings dynamics; incarceration; racial inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:21-319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.