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Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy

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Abstract

We argue that transitional dynamics play a critical role in evaluating the effects of punitive incarceration reform on crime, inequality, and labor markets. Individuals’ past choices regarding crime and employment under previous policies have persistent consequences that limit their responsiveness to policy changes. We provide novel cohort evidence supporting this mechanism. A quantitative model of this theory, calibrated using restricted administrative data, predicts nuanced dynamics of crime and incarceration that are distinct across property and violent crime and similar to the U.S. experience after 1980. Increased inequality and declining employment accompany these changes, with unequal impacts across generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Bulent Guler & Amanda M. Michaud, 2024. "Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 101, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmoi:98972
    DOI: 10.21034/iwp.101
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    2. Grey Gordon & John B. Jones & Urvi Neelakantan & Kartik Athreya, 2023. "Incarceration, Employment and Earnings: Dynamics and Differences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 677-697, December.
    3. Elizabeth Caucutt & Nezih Guner & Christopher Rauh, 2018. "Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide," Working Papers 2018-074, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    4. Wolcott, Erin L., 2021. "Employment inequality: Why do the low-skilled work less now?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 161-177.
    5. Kartik B. Athreya & Grey Gordon & John Bailey Jones & Urvi Neelakantan, 2021. "Incarceration, Earnings, and Race," Working Paper 21-11`, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E69 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Other

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