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Assessing the equalizing force of mobility using short panels: France, 1990-2000

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphane Bonhomme

    (CEMFI - Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)

  • Jean-Marc Robin

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

Abstract

In this paper, we document whether and how much the equalizing force of earnings mobility has changed in France in the 1990s. For this purpose, we use a representative three-year panel, the French Labour Force Survey. We develop a model of earnings dynamics that combines a flexible specification of marginal earnings distributions (to fit the large cross-sectional dimension of the data) with a tight parametric representation of the dynamics (adapted to the short timeseries dimension). Log earnings are modelled as the sum of a deterministic component, an individual fixed effect and a transitory component which is assumed first-order Markov. The transition probability of the transitory component is modelled as a one-parameter Plackett copula. We estimate this model using a sequential EM algorithm. We exploit the estimated model to study employment/earnings inequality in France over the 1990-2002 period. We show that, in phase with business cycle fluctuations (a recession in 1993 and two peaks in 1990 and 2000), earnings mobility decreases when cross-section inequality and unemployment risk increase. We simulate individual earnings trajectories and compute present values of lifetime earnings for various horizons. Inequality presents a hump-shaped evolution over the period, with a 9% increase between 1990 and 1995 and a decrease afterwards. Accounting for unemployment yields an increase of 11%. Moreover, this increase is persistent, as it translates into a 12% increase in the variance of log present values. The ratio of inequality in present values to inequality in one-year earnings, a natural measure of immobility or of the persistence of inequality, remains remarkably constant over the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Bonhomme & Jean-Marc Robin, 2009. "Assessing the equalizing force of mobility using short panels: France, 1990-2000," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308801, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00308801
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00521.x
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00308801
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    Cited by:

    1. Aedín Doris & Donal O’Neill & Olive Sweetman, 2013. "Identification of the covariance structure of earnings using the GMM estimator," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 11(3), pages 343-372, September.
    2. Jeremy Lise & Costas Meghir & Jean-Marc Robin, 2016. "Matching, Sorting and Wages," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 63-87, January.
    3. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2015. "Nonlinear Panel Data Estimation via Quantile Regression," Working Papers wp2015_1505, CEMFI.
    4. Markus Jäntti & Eva M. Sierminska & Philippe Van Kerm, 2015. "Modeling the Joint Distribution of Income and Wealth," Research on Economic Inequality,in: Measurement of Poverty, Deprivation, and Economic Mobility, volume 23, pages 301-327 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    5. repec:kap:jecinq:v:16:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10888-018-9386-x is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Rolf Aaberge & Anthony B. Atkinson & Sebastian Königs, 2018. "From classes to copulas: wages, capital, and top incomes," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 16(2), pages 295-320, June.
    7. Marion Gousse, 2014. "Marriage Market and Intra-Household Allocation. Essays in Economics of Family and Education," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6tve7u8o9k9, Sciences Po.
    8. Magnac, Thierry & Pistolesi, Nicolas & Roux, Sébastien, 2013. "Post schooling human capital investments and the life cycle variance of earnings," IDEI Working Papers 765, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    9. Jeremy Lise & Costas Meghir & Jean-Marc Robin, 2013. "Mismatch, Sorting and Wages Dynamics," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/32h1padvln8, Sciences Po.
    10. Dickson, Matt & Postel-Vinay, Fabien & Turon, Hélène, 2014. "The lifetime earnings premium in the public sector: The view from Europe," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 141-161.
    11. Suphanit Piyapromdee & Jean Marc Robin & Rasmus Lentz, 2016. "The Anatomy of the Wage Distribution: How do Gender and Immigration Matter?," 2016 Meeting Papers 1686, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Emma Tominey, 2010. "The Timing of Parental Income and Child Outcomes: The Role of Permanent and Transitory Shocks," CEE Discussion Papers 0120, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE.
    13. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2015. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?," NBER Working Papers 20913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. repec:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:2:p:143-156 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2015. "Quantile selection models: with an application to understanding changes in wage inequality," CeMMAP working papers CWP75/15, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9od0s108ro is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Robert J. Gary‐Bobo & Marion Goussé & Jean‐Marc Robin, 2016. "Grade retention and unobserved heterogeneity," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(3), pages 781-820, November.
    18. Mariacristina De Nardi & Giulio Fella & Gonzalo Paz Pardo, 2018. "Nonlinear household earnings dynamics, self-insurance, and welfare," 2018 Meeting Papers 156, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Tejada, Mauricio M., 2016. "Lifetime inequality measures for an emerging economy: The case of Chile," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-15.
    20. repec:nse:ecosta:ecostat_2017_494-495-496_11 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Brendan K. Beare & Juwon Seo, 2015. "Vine Copula Specifications for Stationary Multivariate Markov Chains," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 228-246, March.
    22. Martyna Kobus & Radoslaw Kurek, 2017. "Copula-based measurement of interdependence for discrete distributions," Working Papers 431, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    23. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    24. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inequality; mobility; earnings dynamics; copulas;

    JEL classification:

    • D30 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - General
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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