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Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide

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  • Caucutt, E. M.
  • Guner, N.
  • Rauh, C.

Abstract

The difference in marriage rates between black and white Americans is striking. Wilson (1987) suggests that a skewed sex ratio and higher rates of incarceration and unemployment are responsible for lower marriage rates among the black population. In this paper, we take a dynamic look at the Wilson Hypothesis. Incarceration rates and labor market prospects of black men make them riskier spouses than white men. We develop an equilibrium search model of marriage, divorce, and labor supply in which transitions between employment, unemployment, and prison differ by race, education, and gender. The model also allows for racial differences in how individuals value marriage and divorce. We estimate the model and investigate how much of the racial divide in marriage is due to the Wilson Hypothesis and how much is due to differences in preferences for marriage. We find that the Wilson Hypothesis accounts for more than three quarters of the model's racial-marriage gap. This suggests policies that improve employment opportunities and/or reduce incarceration for black men could shrink the racial-marriage gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Caucutt, E. M. & Guner, N. & Rauh, C., 2021. "Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2105, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camjip:2105
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bertocchi, Graziella & Dimico, Arcangelo, 2020. "Bitter Sugar: Slavery and the Black Family," GLO Discussion Paper Series 564, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Hero Ashman & Seth Neumuller, 2020. "Can Income Differences Explain the Racial Wealth Gap: A Quantitative Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 220-239, January.
    4. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen A. Kopecky, 2019. "The Wife's Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage," Working Papers wp2019_1912, CEMFI.
    5. Bastian Schulz & Fabian Siuda, 2020. "Marriage and Divorce: The Role of Labor Market Institutions," CESifo Working Paper Series 8508, CESifo.
    6. Jeanne Lafortune & Corinne Low, 2023. "Collateralized Marriage," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 252-291, October.
    7. Christopher Rauh & Aranu Valladares-Esteban, 2023. "On the black-white gaps in labor supply and earnings over the lifecycle in the US," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 424-449, December.
    8. Christopher Rauh & Aranu Valladares-Esteban, 2023. "On the black-white gaps in labor supply and earnings over the lifecycle in the US," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 424-449, December.
    9. Graziella Bertocchi & Arcangelo Dimico, 2020. "Bitter Sugar: Slavery and the Black Family," Department of Economics 0172, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    10. Maria Cancian, 2021. "APPAM Presidential Address: Reflections on Who Counts and Why it Matters," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 324-347, March.
    11. Kartik B. Athreya & Grey Gordon & John Bailey Jones & Urvi Neelakantan, 2021. "Incarceration, Earnings, and Race," Working Paper 21-11`, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marriage; Race; Incarceration; Inequality; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J - Labor and Demographic Economics
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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