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Marriage, Labor Supply, and the Dynamics of the Social Safety Net

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Abstract

The 1996 U.S. welfare reform introduced time limits on welfare receipt. We use quasi-experimental evidence and a rich life cycle model to understand the impact of time limits on different margins of behavior and well-being. We stress the impact of marital status and marital transitions on mitigating the cost and impact of time limits. Time limits cause women to defer claiming in anticipation of future needs and to work more, effects that depend on the probabilities of marriage and divorce. They also cause an increase in employment among single mothers and reduce divorce, but their introduction costs women 0.7% of lifetime consumption, gross of the redistribution of government savings.

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  • Hamish W. Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri & Alessandra Voena, 2025. "Marriage, Labor Supply, and the Dynamics of the Social Safety Net," Working Paper Series WP 2025-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:102278
    DOI: 10.21033/wp-2025-27
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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