IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eag/rereps/33.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Great Transition: Kuznets Facts for Family-Economists

Author

Abstract

The 20th century beheld a dramatic transformation of the family. Some Kuznets style facts regarding structural change in the family are presented. Over the course of the 20th century in the United States fertility declined, educational attainment waxed, housework fell, leisure increased, and marriage waned. These trends are also observed in the cross-country data. A model is developed, and then calibrated, to address the trends in the US data. The calibration procedure is closely connected to the underlying economic logic. Three drivers of the great transition are considered: neutral technological progress, skilled-biased technological change, and drops in the price of labor-saving household durables. You can download the Kuznets facts here: https://www.ricardomarto.com/data/ In Handbook of the Economics of the Family, edited by Shelly Lundberg and Alessandra Voena, (Amsterdam: Elsevier), 389-441.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Ricardo Marto, 2021. "The Great Transition: Kuznets Facts for Family-Economists," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 33, Economie d'Avant Garde.
  • Handle: RePEc:eag:rereps:33
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.jeremygreenwood.net/papers/ggvm.pdf
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: None
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrés Erosa & Tatyana Koreshkova & Diego Restuccia, 2010. "How Important Is Human Capital? A Quantitative Theory Assessment of World Income Inequality," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(4), pages 1421-1449.
    2. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    3. Williamson Jeffrey G., 1995. "The Evolution of Global Labor Markets since 1830: Background Evidence and Hypotheses," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 141-196, April.
    4. Diego Restuccia & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2014. "Explaining Educational Attainment across Countries and over Time," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 824-841, October.
    5. Andres Erosa & Luisa Fuster & Diego Restuccia, 2010. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Parental Leave Policies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(4), pages 742-758, October.
    6. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Georgi Kocharkov & Cezar Santos, 2016. "Technology and the Changing Family: A Unified Model of Marriage, Divorce, Educational Attainment, and Married Female Labor-Force Participation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-41, January.
    7. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2013. "Life Expectancy, Schooling, and Lifetime Labor Supply: Theory and Evidence Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(5), pages 2055-2086, September.
    8. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner, 2009. "Marriage and Divorce since World War II: Analyzing the Role of Technological Progress on the Formation of Households," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 231-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Morchio, Iacopo & Moser, Christian, 2018. "The Gender Pay Gap: Micro Sources and Macro Consequences," MPRA Paper 99276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Mar 2020.
    10. Marion Goussé & Nicolas Jacquemet & Jean‐Marc Robin, 2017. "Marriage, Labor Supply, and Home Production," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85(6), pages 1873-1919, November.
    11. Bridgman, Benjamin & Duernecker, Georg & Herrendorf, Berthold, 2018. "Structural transformation, marketization, and household production around the world," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 102-126.
    12. Diego Restuccia & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2014. "Explaining Educational Attainment across Countries and over Time," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 824-841, October.
    13. Matthias Doepke & Moshe Hazan & Yishay D. Maoz, 2015. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(3), pages 1031-1073.
    14. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Delventhal, Matthew J. & Guner, Nezih, 2021. "Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space," CEPR Discussion Papers 16708, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Carlos Bethencourt & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2009. "On The Living Arrangements Of Elderly Widows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 773-801, August.
    16. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2015. "The effect of life expectancy on education and population dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1445-1478, June.
    17. Michelle Rendall, 2018. "Female Market Work, Tax Regimes, and the Rise of the Service Sector," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 269-289, April.
    18. Matthias Doepke & Fabian Kindermann, 2019. "Bargaining over Babies: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3264-3306, September.
    19. Guner, Nezih & Caucutt, Elizabeth & Rauh, Christopher, 2018. "Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide," CEPR Discussion Papers 13275, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Alessandra Fogli & Laura Veldkamp, 2011. "Nature or Nurture? Learning and the Geography of Female Labor Force Participation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1103-1138, July.
    21. Flabbi, Luca & Moro, Andrea, 2012. "The effect of job flexibility on female labor market outcomes: Estimates from a search and bargaining model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(1), pages 81-95.
    22. Chunzan Wu & Dirk Krueger, 2021. "Consumption Insurance against Wage Risk: Family Labor Supply and Optimal Progressive Income Taxation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 79-113, January.
    23. Alejandrina Salcedo & Todd Schoellman & Michèle Tertilt, 2012. "Families as roommates: Changes in U.S. household size from 1850 to 2000," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(1), pages 133-175, March.
    24. Alexander Bick & Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & David Lagakos, 2018. "How Do Hours Worked Vary with Income? Cross-Country Evidence and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(1), pages 170-199, January.
    25. Titan Alon & Sena Coskun & Matthias Doepke & David Koll & Michèle Tertilt, 2022. "From Mancession to Shecession: Women’s Employment in Regular and Pandemic Recessions," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 83-151.
    26. Cezar Santos & David Weiss, 2016. "“Why Not Settle Down Already?” A Quantitative Analysis Of The Delay In Marriage," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 425-452, May.
    27. David Weiss & Cezar Santos, 2011. "Why Not Settle Down Already? A Quantitative Question," 2011 Meeting Papers 921, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    28. John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1, January.
    29. George‐Levi Gayle & Andrew Shephard, 2019. "Optimal Taxation, Marriage, Home Production, and Family Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 291-326, January.
    30. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Fella, Giulio & ,, 2020. "Wage Risk and Government and Spousal Insurance," CEPR Discussion Papers 15608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Becker, Gary S, 1973. "A Theory of Marriage: Part I," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 813-846, July-Aug..
    32. Alessandra Voena, 2015. "Yours, Mine, and Ours: Do Divorce Laws Affect the Intertemporal Behavior of Married Couples?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2295-2332, August.
    33. Alexandr Kopytov & Nikolai Roussanov & Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, 2023. "Cheap Thrills: The Price of Leisure and the Global Decline in Work Hours," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 80-118.
    34. Karen A. Kopecky, 2011. "The Trend In Retirement," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(2), pages 287-316, May.
    35. Razin, Assaf & Ben-Zion, Uri, 1975. "An Intergenerational Model of Population Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 923-933, December.
    36. Paula A. Calvo & Ilse Lindenlaub & Ana Reynoso, 2021. "Marriage Market and Labor Market Sorting," NBER Working Papers 28883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Michelle Rendall, 2018. "Female Market Work, Tax Regimes, and the Rise of the Service Sector," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 269-289, April.
    38. Xiao, Pengpeng, 2021. "Wage and Employment Discrimination by Gender in Labor Market Equilibrium," Working Papers 144, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    39. Luca Pensieroso & Alessandro Sommacal, 2019. "Agriculture to Industry: the End of Intergenerational Coresidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 87-102, October.
    40. Orazio P. Attanasio & Luigi Pistaferri, 2016. "Consumption Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
    41. Mark Bils & Barış Kaymak & Kai-Jie Wu, 2022. "Labor Substitutability among Schooling Groups," Working Papers 22-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    42. Morchio, Iacopo & Moser, Christian, 2018. "The Gender Pay Gap: Micro Sources and Macro Consequences," MPRA Paper 99276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Mar 2020.
    43. Carter,Susan B. & Gartner,Scott Sigmund & Haines,Michael R. & Olmstead,Alan L. & Sutch,Richard & Wri (ed.), 2006. "The Historical Statistics of the United States 5 Volume Hardback Set," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817912, November.
    44. Michael Bar & Moshe Hazan & Oksana Leukhina & David Weiss & Hosny Zoabi, 2018. "Why did rich families increase their fertility? Inequality and marketization of child care," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 427-463, December.
    45. Browning,Martin & Chiappori,Pierre-André & Weiss,Yoram, 2014. "Economics of the Family," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521795395, November.
    46. J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    47. Bick, Alexander & Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola & Lagakos, David & Tsujiyama, Hitoshi, 2022. "Structural change in labor supply and cross-country differences in hours worked," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 68-85.
    48. Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Maurizio Mazzocco, 2017. "Static and Intertemporal Household Decisions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 985-1045, September.
    49. Hanming Fang & Andrew J. Shephard, 2019. "Household Labor Search, Spousal Insurance, and Health Care Reform," NBER Working Papers 26350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Cezar Santos & David Weiss, 2016. "“Why Not Settle Down Already?” A Quantitative Analysis Of The Delay In Marriage," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 425-452, May.
    51. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(4), pages 281-281.
    52. Webbink, Ellen & Smits, Jeroen & de Jong, Eelke, 2012. "Hidden Child Labor: Determinants of Housework and Family Business Work of Children in 16 Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 631-642.
    53. Sommer, Kamila, 2016. "Fertility choice in a life cycle model with idiosyncratic uninsurable earnings risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 27-38.
    54. McElroy, Marjorie B & Horney, Mary Jean, 1981. "Nash-Bargained Household Decisions: Toward a Generalization of the Theory of Demand," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(2), pages 333-349, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Cervellati & Gerrit Meyerheim & Uwe Sunde, 2023. "The empirics of economic growth over time and across nations: a unified growth perspective," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 173-224, June.
    2. Premilla D’Cruz & Shuili Du & Ernesto Noronha & K. Praveen Parboteeah & Hannah Trittin-Ulbrich & Glen Whelan, 2022. "Technology, Megatrends and Work: Thoughts on the Future of Business Ethics," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 180(3), pages 879-902, October.
    3. Clara E. Piano, 2022. "Autocratic family policy," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 233-253, June.
    4. Clara E. Piano, 2022. "The family and the state: a public choice perspective," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 383-405, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Doepke, Matthias & Hannusch, Anne & Kindermann, Fabian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," IZA Discussion Papers 15224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    3. Titan Alon & Matthias Doepke & Jane Olmstead-Rumsey, 2020. "This Time It's Different: The Role of Women's Employment in a Pandemic Recession," Working Papers 2020-057, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    4. Turon, Hélène, 2022. "The Labour Supply of Mothers," IZA Discussion Papers 15312, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Guner, Nezih & Caucutt, Elizabeth & Rauh, Christopher, 2018. "Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide," CEPR Discussion Papers 13275, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2017. "Family Economics Writ Large," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1346-1434, December.
    7. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen A. Kopecky, 2019. "The Wife's Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage," Working Papers wp2019_1912, CEMFI.
    8. Thomas TB Baudin & Bram De Rock & Paula Eugenia Gobbi, 2021. "Economics and Family Structures," Working Papers ECARES 2021-21, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Paula A. Calvo & Ilse Lindenlaub & Ana Reynoso, 2021. "Marriage Market and Labor Market Sorting," NBER Working Papers 28883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Marianne Bertrand & Patricia Cortés & Claudia Olivetti & Jessica Pan, 2016. "Social Norms, Labor Market Opportunities, and the Marriage Gap for Skilled Women," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 902, Boston College Department of Economics.
    11. KITAO Sagiri & MIKOSHIBA Minamo, 2022. "Why Women Work the Way They Do in Japan: Roles of Fiscal Policies," Discussion papers 22016, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Diego Restuccia & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2012. "A Century of Human Capital and Hours," Working Papers tecipa-450, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    13. Nawid Siassi, 2019. "Inequality and the Marriage Gap," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 160-181, January.
    14. Salanié, Bernard & Chiappori, Pierre-André, 2021. "Mating Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 16041, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Pierre-André Chiappori & Bernard Salanié, 2021. "Mating Markets," Working Papers 2021-016, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    15. Karapanagiotis, Pantelis & Reimers, Paul, 2024. "Why does the schooling gap close while the wage gap persists across country income comparisons?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    16. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2017. "Family Economics Writ Large," Working Papers wp2018_1706, CEMFI.
    17. Rania Gihleb & Osnat Lifshitz, 2022. "Dynamic Effects of Educational Assortative Mating on Labor Supply," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 302-327, October.
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4u07fqmc7q90d9u66sk1a7qgko is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Edoardo Ciscato, 2019. "Matching models with and without frictions: applications to the economics of the family," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4u07fqmc7q9, Sciences Po.
    20. Alexandros Theloudis & Jorge Velilla & Pierre-André Chiappori & J. Ignacio Gimenéz-Nadal & José Alberto Molina, 2022. "Commitment and the Dynamics of Household Labor Supply," Working Papers 2022-042, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    21. Joseph Altonji & Disa Hynsjo & Ivan Vidangos, 2023. "Individual Earnings and Family Income: Dynamics and Distribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 225-250, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    average weekly hours; blue-collar jobs; calibration; college premium; education; family economics; fertility; housework. Kuznets; leisure; market work; marriage; neutral technological progress; price of labor-saving household durables; skilled-biased technological change; white-collar jobs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eag:rereps:33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jeremy Greenwood (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.jeremygreenwood.net/EAG.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.