Konjunktur und Generationenbilanz – eine Analyse anhand des HP-Filters / Business Cycle Effects on Generational Accounting – An Analysis using the HP-Filter
Generational accounting is - given the future demographic developments in OECD countries - an established tool to quantify the fiscal situation of public coffers. However, as all economic methods dealing with future developments it has critical points. One in particular is the calibration on one base year which neglects business cycle effects on the generational accounts. This paper aims to analyze in which way and to which degree generational accounts and the associated sustainability indicators are biased due to the neglecting of business cycle effects. To do this we use the Hodrick-Prescott-Filter to estimate the business cycle effects for the German general government budgets from 1996 to 2005. We then calculate sustainability indicators based on all years given the actual and the business cycle adjusted budgets. It can be stated that the neglect of the business cycle definitively has an effect on the outcomes of the generational accounting framework. However the magnitude of this effect is rather small, at least for Germany. As a by-product of our analysis, we show that the German fiscal policy was rather pro-cyclical during the examined time frame and that the effects of these policies on the generational accounts are larger than the business cycle effects.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 228 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.degruyter.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jbnst|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:228:y:2008:i:4:p:299-316. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.