IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Beyond the Toledo agreement: the intergenerational impact of the spanish pension reform


  • Holger Bonin
  • Joan Gil Trasfi
  • Concepcion Patxot Cardoner

    (Universitat de Barcelona)


The paper examines the intergenerational impact of the Spanish public pension system after the 1997 Pension Reform Act. Working within a Generational Accounting framework, we find that maintaining the new legal setting could leave future generations with liabilities as high as 176 percent of base year GDP. As the recent reform measures have been insufficient to achieve the sustainability of the current pension system, we also analyse the impact of alternative reform strategies. Within the current pay-as-you-go setting, a further improvement to tax-benefit linkage in line with the original spirit of the Toledo Agreement is shown to yield and intergenerationally more balanced outcome, than an increase in the retirement age or an expansion of public subsidies financed through indirect taxes. Finally, we examine the generational impact of a move toward a partially funded pension system which might restore the intergenerational balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Bonin & Joan Gil Trasfi & Concepcion Patxot Cardoner, 1999. "Beyond the Toledo agreement: the intergenerational impact of the spanish pension reform," Working Papers in Economics 54, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bar:bedcje:199954

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Auerbach, Alan J & Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1992. " Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 303-318.
    3. José A. Herce & Javier Alonso, "undated". "Los efectos económicos de la Ley de Consolidación de la Seguridad Social. Perspectivas financieras del sistema de pensiones tras su entrada en vigor," Working Papers 98-16, FEDEA.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
    5. Homburg, Stefan, 1990. "The Efficiency of Unfunded Pension Schemes," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 640-647.
    6. Rafflhuschen, B. & Risa, A.E., 1997. "Generational Accounting and intergenerational Welfare," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 164, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
    7. Lopez-Garcia, Miguel-Angel, 1996. "Consumption and Income as Tax Bases for Social Security," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 51(1), pages 54-70.
    8. Raffelhuschen, Bernd & Risa, Alf Erling, 1997. "Generational Accounting and Intergenerational Welfare," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 93(1-2), pages 149-163, October.
    9. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1997. "The Value of Children and Immigrants in a Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: A Proposal for a Partial Transition to a Funded System," NBER Working Papers 6229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Boll, Stephan & Raffelhuschen, Bernd & Walliser, Jan, 1994. "Social Security and Intergenerational Redistribution: A Generational Accounting Perspective," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 81(1-2), pages 79-100, October.
    11. Buiter, Willem H, 1997. "Generational Accounts, Aggregate Saving and Intergenerational Distribution," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(256), pages 605-626, November.
    12. Eduardo Berenguer Comas & Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhuschen, 1998. "Generational Accounting in Spain: Has public sector grown too much?," Working Papers in Economics 30, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    13. Bernd Raffelhüschen, 1993. "Funding social security through Pareto-optimal conversion policies," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 105-131, December.
    14. Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.
    15. Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, 2000. "Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 57(1), pages 1-1, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Gemma Abío & Eduard Berenguer & Holger Bonin & Joan Gil & Concepció Patxot, 2003. "Is the deficit under control? A generational accounting perspective on fiscal policy and labour market trends in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(2), pages 309-341, May.
    2. Concepció Patxot & Elisenda Rentería & Miguel Romero & Guadalupe Souto, 2012. "Measuring the balance of government intervention on forward and backward family transfers using NTA estimates: the modified Lee arrows," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(3), pages 442-461, June.
    3. Simonovits, András & Gál, Róbert Iván & Tarcali, Géza, 2001. "Korosztályi elszámolás a magyar nyugdíjrendszerben
      [Generational accounting and the Hungarian pension reform]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 291-306.
    4. Holger Bonin & Concepció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2014. "Cyclically‐Neutral Generational Accounting," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 117-137, June.
    5. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & Inmaculada Domínguez-Fabian, 2005. "The Spanish Pension System: Issues Of Introducing Notional Defined Contribution Accounts," Public Economics 0504006, EconWPA.
    6. Henryk Gurgul & Pawel Majdosz, 2006. "The impact of institutional investors on risk and stock return autocorrelation in the context of the polish pension reform," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 2, pages 5-30.
    7. Gál, Róbert I. & Simonovits, András & Tarcali, Géza, 2001. "Generational accounting and Hungarian pension reform," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 90343, The World Bank.
    8. Gemma Abio Roig & Joan Gil Trasfi & Concepcion Patxot Cardoner, 2005. "La Ley de Estabilidad Presupuestaria en el largo plazo: efecto del ciclo demografico," Working Papers in Economics 126, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bar:bedcje:199954. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Espai de Recerca en Economia). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.