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Beyond the Toledo agreement: the intergenerational impact of the spanish pension reform

Author

Listed:
  • Holger Bonin
  • Joan Gil Trasfi
  • Concepcion Patxot Cardoner

    (Universitat de Barcelona)

Abstract

The paper examines the intergenerational impact of the Spanish public pension system after the 1997 Pension Reform Act. Working within a Generational Accounting framework, we find that maintaining the new legal setting could leave future generations with liabilities as high as 176 percent of base year GDP. As the recent reform measures have been insufficient to achieve the sustainability of the current pension system, we also analyse the impact of alternative reform strategies. Within the current pay-as-you-go setting, a further improvement to tax-benefit linkage in line with the original spirit of the Toledo Agreement is shown to yield and intergenerationally more balanced outcome, than an increase in the retirement age or an expansion of public subsidies financed through indirect taxes. Finally, we examine the generational impact of a move toward a partially funded pension system which might restore the intergenerational balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Bonin & Joan Gil Trasfi & Concepcion Patxot Cardoner, 1999. "Beyond the Toledo agreement: the intergenerational impact of the spanish pension reform," Working Papers in Economics 54, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bar:bedcje:199954
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    Cited by:

    1. Gemma Abío & Eduard Berenguer & Holger Bonin & Joan Gil & Concepció Patxot, 2003. "Is the deficit under control? A generational accounting perspective on fiscal policy and labour market trends in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(2), pages 309-341, May.
    2. Concepció Patxot & Elisenda Rentería & Miguel Romero & Guadalupe Souto, 2012. "Measuring the balance of government intervention on forward and backward family transfers using NTA estimates: the modified Lee arrows," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(3), pages 442-461, June.
    3. Lucio Baccaro, 2002. "Negotiating the Italian Pension Reform with the Unions: Lessons for Corporatist Theory," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 55(3), pages 413-431, April.
    4. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & Inmaculada Domínguez-Fabian, 2005. "The Spanish Pension System: Issues Of Introducing Notional Defined Contribution Accounts," Public Economics 0504006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Holger Bonin & Concepció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2014. "Cyclically‐Neutral Generational Accounting," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 117-137, June.
    6. Gemma Abio Roig & Joan Gil Trasfi & Concepcion Patxot Cardoner, 2005. "La Ley de Estabilidad Presupuestaria en el largo plazo: efecto del ciclo demografico," Working Papers in Economics 126, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    7. Simonovits, András & Gál, Róbert Iván & Tarcali, Géza, 2001. "Korosztályi elszámolás a magyar nyugdíjrendszerben [Generational accounting and the Hungarian pension reform]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 291-306.
    8. Emilio Gómez-Déniz & Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. "Analyzing How the Social Security Reserve Fund in Spain Affects the Sustainability of the Pension System," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    9. Henryk Gurgul & Paweł Majdosz, 2006. "The impact of institutional investors on risk and stock return autocorrelations in the context of the Polish pension reform," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 16(2), pages 5-30.
    10. Gál, Róbert I. & Simonovits, András & Tarcali, Géza, 2001. "Generational accounting and Hungarian pension reform," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 90343, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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