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Beyond the Toledo agreement: The intergenerational impact of the Spanish pension reform

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Listed author(s):
  • Holger Bonin
  • Joan Gil
  • ConcepciÛ Patxot

Abstract

The paper examines the intergenerational impact of the Spanish public pension system after the 1997 Pension Reform Act. Within a Generational Accounting framework, we find that the new legal setting could leave future generations with liabilities as high as 176% of 1996 GDP. Hence, we analyse the impact of alternative reforms. Holding the pay-as-you-go setting, a further improvement to tax-benefit linkage in line with the Toledo Agreement proposals is shown to yield an intergenerationally more balanced outcome, than an increase in the retirement age or an expansion of public subsidies financed through indirect taxes. Finally, a move toward a partially funded pension system which restores the intergenerational balance is simulated.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Studies on the Spanish Economy with number 38.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:38
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
  • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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  1. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Auerbach, Alan J & Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1992. " Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 303-318.
  3. Homburg, Stefan, 1990. "The Efficiency of Unfunded Pension Schemes," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 640-647.
  4. Raffelhuschen, Bernd & Risa, Alf Erling, 1997. "Generational Accounting and Intergenerational Welfare," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 93(1-2), pages 149-163, October.
  5. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1997. "The Value of Children and Immigrants in a Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: A Proposal For a Partial Transition to a Funded System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1734, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Bernd Raffelhüschen, 1993. "Funding social security through Pareto-optimal conversion policies," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 105-131, December.
  7. Buiter, Willem H, 1997. "Generational Accounts, Aggregate Saving and Intergenerational Distribution," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(256), pages 605-626, November.
  8. Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, 2000. "Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 57(1), pages 1-1, September.
  9. José A. Herce & Javier Alonso, "undated". "Los efectos económicos de la Ley de Consolidación de la Seguridad Social. Perspectivas financieras del sistema de pensiones tras su entrada en vigor," Working Papers 98-16, FEDEA.
  10. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
  11. Rafflhuschen, B. & Risa, A.E., 1997. "Generational Accounting and intergenerational Welfare," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 164, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
  12. Lopez-Garcia, Miguel-Angel, 1996. "Consumption and Income as Tax Bases for Social Security," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 51(1), pages 54-70.
  13. Boll, Stephan & Raffelhuschen, Bernd & Walliser, Jan, 1994. "Social Security and Intergenerational Redistribution: A Generational Accounting Perspective," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 81(1-2), pages 79-100, October.
  14. Eduardo Berenguer Comas & Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhuschen, 1998. "Generational Accounting in Spain: Has public sector grown too much?," Working Papers in Economics 30, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  15. Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.
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Cited by:

  1. Gemma Abío & Eduard Berenguer & Holger Bonin & Joan Gil & Concepció Patxot, 2003. "Is the deficit under control? A generational accounting perspective on fiscal policy and labour market trends in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(2), pages 309-341, May.
  2. Holger Bonin & Concepció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2014. "Cyclically‐Neutral Generational Accounting," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 117-137, 06.
  3. Concepció Patxot & Elisenda Rentería & Miguel Romero & Guadalupe Souto, 2012. "Measuring the balance of government intervention on forward and backward family transfers using NTA estimates: the modified Lee arrows," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(3), pages 442-461, June.
  4. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & Inmaculada Domínguez-Fabian, 2005. "The Spanish Pension System: Issues Of Introducing Notional Defined Contribution Accounts," Public Economics 0504006, EconWPA.
  5. Gemma Abio Roig & Joan Gil Trasfi & Concepcion Patxot Cardoner, 2005. "La Ley de Estabilidad Presupuestaria en el largo plazo: efecto del ciclo demografico," Working Papers in Economics 126, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  6. Simonovits, András & Gál, Róbert Iván & Tarcali, Géza, 2001. "Korosztályi elszámolás a magyar nyugdíjrendszerben
    [Generational accounting and the Hungarian pension reform]    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 291-306.
  7. Henryk Gurgul & Pawel Majdosz, 2006. "The impact of institutional investors on risk and stock return autocorrelation in the context of the polish pension reform," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 2, pages 5-30.
  8. Gál, Róbert I. & Simonovits, András & Tarcali, Géza, 2001. "Generational accounting and Hungarian pension reform," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 90343, The World Bank.

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