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Fiskalische Effekte der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland - Eine Generationenbilanz

Author

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  • Bonin, Holger

    (IHS - Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

Abstract

Der Beitrag untersucht die Bedeutung von Zuwanderung für die langfristige Entwicklung öffentlicher Haushalte in Deutschland. Mit Hilfe der Generationenbilanzierung werden die Nettosteuerzahlungen von Zuwanderern von ihrer Ankunft im Aufnahmeland bis an ihr Lebensende geschätzt. Wenn künftige Einwanderer der heute in Deutschland lebenden Ausländerbevölkerung ähneln, ist der Gesamtbeitrag der Zuwanderung zu den öffentlichen Haushalten eindeutig positiv. Immigration wäre daher ein geeignetes Instrument, in einer alternden Gesellschaft steigende Steuerlasten für die einheimische Bevölkerung zu verringern. Eine aktive Einwanderungspolitik, die hoch Qualifizierte selektiert und die Integration der Zuwanderer in den Arbeitsmarkt unterstützt, vergrößert die positiven Wirkungen auf die Steuerlast der einheimischen Bevölkerung. Allerdings kann selbst hohe Zuwanderung gut ausgebildeter Erwerbspersonen die von einer alternden Bevölkerung ausgelösten generationalen Umverteilungsprozesse nur teilweise aufheben. The paper employs generational accounting to analyze the intertemporal fiscal impact of mmigration to Germany. Generational accounts for native and alien residents are distinguished to assess what might be the lifetime net tax payments of prospective immigrants after arrival. Supposed future immigrants resemble the current migrant population in Germany, the fiscal externality on the incumbent population due to immigration is found positive and large. Further, immigration probably reduces generational redistribution through demographic aging even if migrants assimilate slowly fiscally. However, while selective immigration policy could raise the average migrant surplus to the intertemporal government budget, it cannot restore fiscal sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonin, Holger, 2001. "Fiskalische Effekte der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland - Eine Generationenbilanz," IZA Discussion Papers 305, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp305
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    Cited by:

    1. Ugur, Mehmet, 2007. "Migration without borders: the ethics, economics and governance of free movement," MPRA Paper 26007, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2010.
    2. John P Haisken-DeNew & Christoph M. Schmidt & Thomas Bauer, 2004. "International Labor Migration, Economic Growth and Labor Markets – The Current State of Affairs," RWI Discussion Papers 0020, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    3. Brücker, Herbert & Kohlhaas, Michael, 2004. "International Migration to Germany: A CGE-Analysis of Labour Market Impact," Conference papers 331276, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2011. "Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-32, Spring.
    5. Raffelhüschen, Bernd & Hagist, Christian & Moog, Stefan, 2008. "Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz. Update 2008: Migration und Nachhaltigkeit," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 103, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    6. David Coleman & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "The Economic Effects of Immigration into the United Kingdom," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(4), pages 579-624, December.
    7. Flam, Harry, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," Seminar Papers 718, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    8. repec:zbw:rwidps:0020 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hagist, Christian & Moog, Stefan & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2008. "Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz - Update 2008: Migration und Nachhaltigkeit," FZG Discussion Papers 30, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    10. Bernard M. Hoekman & Togan Sübidey, 2005. "Turkey : Economic Reform and Accession to the European Union," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7494.
    11. Schmidt, Christoph M. & Haisken-DeNew, John P. & Bauer, Thomas K., 2004. "International Labor Migration, Economic Growth and Labor Markets - The Current State of Affairs," RWI Discussion Papers 20, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    12. Sübidey Togan, 2004. "Turkey: Toward EU Accession," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7), pages 1013-1045, July.
    13. Krieger, Tim, 2005. "Renten und Zuwanderung: Ein Überblick über neue Ergebnisse der Forschung," Arbeitspapiere der Nordakademie 2005-04, Nordakademie - Hochschule der Wirtschaft.
    14. Richter, Wolfram F., 2002. "Social Security and Taxation of Labour Subject to Subsidiarity and Freedom of Movement," IZA Discussion Papers 490, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Tim Krieger, 2002. "Chancen und Risiken für die nationalen Rentensysteme durch internationale Arbeitsmobilität," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(2), pages 199-214.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal sustainability; migration; Generational accounting; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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