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A fiscal outlook for Poland using Generational Accounts

Listed author(s):
  • Janusz Jablonowski

    ()

    (Narodowy Bank Polski)

  • Christoph Mueller

    (Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg)

  • Bernd Raffelhüschen

    (Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg)

Registered author(s):

    During the next few decades the populations of most developed countries will grow older and older as a result of the low fertility rates since the 1970s and/or the continuously increasing life expectancy. Poland, one of the biggest countries in Central Europe, will be confronted rather seriously by this development. Generational Accounting which was introduced in the early nineties, can illustrate the effects of this ageing process on a country’s fiscal situation. We show that the demographic development produces a major problem for the long term stability of Polish public finances. In particular the healthcare system deserves special attention for policy makers in the medium and long run, whilst the general pension system shall stabilise in the long term.

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    File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/85_en.pdf
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    Paper provided by Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department in its series NBP Working Papers with number 85.

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    Length: 107
    Date of creation: 2011
    Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:85
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    1. Brigitte Dormont & Michel Grignon & Hélène Huber, 2006. "Health expenditure growth: reassessing the threat of ageing," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 947-963.
    2. Diamond, Peter, 1996. "Generational Accounts and Generational Balance: An Assessment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 597-607, December.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    4. Breyer Friedrich & Ulrich Volker, 2000. "Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt: Eine Regressionsanalyse / Ageing, Medical Progress and Health Care Expenditures: A Regression Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 220(1), pages 1-17, February.
    5. Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 1997. "Reply to Diamond's and Cutler's Reviews of Generational Accounting," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 50(2), pages 303-14, June.
    6. Diamond, Peter, 1996. "Generational Accounts and Generational Balance: An Assessment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 597-607, December.
    7. Hans Fehr & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounting in General Equilibrium," NBER Chapters,in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 43-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Rafflhuschen, B. & Risa, A.E., 1997. "Generational Accounting and intergenerational Welfare," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 164, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3881 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.
    11. Bruce Baker & Daniel Besendorfer & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2002. "Intertemporal State Budgeting," NBER Working Papers 9067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Stefan Felder, 2006. "Lebenserwartung, medizinischer Fortschritt und Gesundheitsausgaben: Theorie und Empirie," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(s1), pages 49-73, 05.
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