IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbp/nbpmis/85.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A fiscal outlook for Poland using Generational Accounts

Author

Listed:
  • Janusz Jablonowski

    () (Narodowy Bank Polski)

  • Christoph Mueller

    (Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg)

  • Bernd Raffelhüschen

    (Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg)

Abstract

During the next few decades the populations of most developed countries will grow older and older as a result of the low fertility rates since the 1970s and/or the continuously increasing life expectancy. Poland, one of the biggest countries in Central Europe, will be confronted rather seriously by this development. Generational Accounting which was introduced in the early nineties, can illustrate the effects of this ageing process on a country’s fiscal situation. We show that the demographic development produces a major problem for the long term stability of Polish public finances. In particular the healthcare system deserves special attention for policy makers in the medium and long run, whilst the general pension system shall stabilise in the long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Janusz Jablonowski & Christoph Mueller & Bernd Raffelhüschen, 2011. "A fiscal outlook for Poland using Generational Accounts," NBP Working Papers 85, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:85
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/85_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diamond, Peter, 1996. "Generational Accounts and Generational Balance: An Assessment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 597-607, December.
    2. Brigitte Dormont & Michel Grignon & Hélène Huber, 2006. "Health expenditure growth: reassessing the threat of ageing," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 947-963, September.
    3. Hans Fehr & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounting in General Equilibrium," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 43-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Diamond, Peter, 1996. "Generational Accounts and Generational Balance: An Assessment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(4), pages 597-607, December.
    5. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    6. Rafflhuschen, B. & Risa, A.E., 1997. "Generational Accounting and intergenerational Welfare," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 164, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
    7. Breyer Friedrich & Ulrich Volker, 2000. "Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt: Eine Regressionsanalyse / Ageing, Medical Progress and Health Care Expenditures: A Regression Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 220(1), pages 1-17, February.
    8. Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 1997. "Reply to Diamond's and Cutler's Reviews of Generational Accounting," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 50(2), pages 303-14, June.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3881 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.
    11. Bruce Baker & Daniel Besendorfer & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2002. "Intertemporal State Budgeting," NBER Working Papers 9067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Stefan Felder, 2006. "Lebenserwartung, medizinischer Fortschritt und Gesundheitsausgaben: Theorie und Empirie," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(s1), pages 49-73, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paweł Kaczmarczyk, 2013. "Are immigrants a burden for the state budget? Review paper," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/79, European University Institute.
    2. Maciej Lis, 2015. "Red Herring in the Vistula River: Time-to-Death and Health Care Expenditure," IBS Working Papers 13/2015, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jabłonowski, Janusz & Müller, Christoph & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2010. "A fiscal outlook for Poland using generational accounts," FZG Discussion Papers 47, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    2. Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2002. "Generational policy," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 27, pages 1873-1932, Elsevier.
    3. André Masson, 2002. "Méthodes et usages des comptes générationnels : un regard décalé," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 154(3), pages 1-24.
    4. Otto Gandenberger, 2000. "Is the Fiscal Deficit Misconceived? Proponents of Generational Accounting Overstate their Case," CESifo Working Paper Series 282, CESifo.
    5. Casey Mulligan & Tomas Philipson, "undated". "Merit Motives and Government Intervention: Public Finance in Reverse," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 2000-03, Chicago - Population Research Center.
    6. SHIMASAWA Manabu & OGURO Kazumasa, 2016. "Will Abenomics Save Future Generations?," Discussion papers 16100, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Bonin, Holger, 2001. "Fiskalische Effekte der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland - Eine Generationenbilanz," IZA Discussion Papers 305, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Bodo Herzog, 2010. "Anwendung des Nachhaltigkeitsansatzes von Bohn zur Etablierung eines Frühindikators in den öffentlichen Finanzen Beitrag zur aktuellen Debatte der Föderalismuskommission II," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 43(2), pages 183-206.
    9. Holger Bonin, 2002. "Eine fiskalische Gesamtbilanz der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(2), pages 215-229.
    10. Engen, Eric M., 1997. "Distributional Analysis of Tax Policy," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 50(4), pages 805-809, December.
    11. Christian Hagist & Norbert Klusen & Andreas Plate & Bernd Raffelhüschen, 2005. "Social Health Insurance - the Major Driver of Unsustainable Fiscal Policy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1574, CESifo.
    12. Jean-Philippe Stijns, 2002. "Comptabilité générationnelle belge," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 154(3), pages 31-41.
    13. Bernd Raffelhuschen & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the Globe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 161-166, May.
    14. Keuschnigg, Christian & Keuschnigg, Mirela & Koman, Reinhard, 2000. "Public Debt and Generational Balance in Austria Lueth, Erik; Raffelhueschen, Bernd," Economics Series 80, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    15. John Ablett & Zaid Tseggai‐Bocurezion, 2000. "Lifetime Net Average Tax Rates in Australia Since Federation—A Generational Accounting Study," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(233), pages 139-151, June.
    16. A. Bovenberg & Harry Rele, 2000. "Generational Accounts for The Netherlands: An Update," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 7(4), pages 411-430, August.
    17. Engen, Eric M., 1997. "Distributional Analysis of Tax Policy," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 50(4), pages 805-09, December.
    18. Paolo Pertile & Veronica Polin & Pietro Rizza & Marzia Romanelli, 2012. "Public finance consolidation and fairness across living generations: the case of Italy," Working Papers 04/2012, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    19. Volker Meier & Martin Werding, 2010. "Ageing and the Welfare State: Securing Sustainability," CESifo Working Paper Series 2916, CESifo.
    20. Martin Larch & João Nogueira Martins, 2007. "Fiscal indicators - Proceedings of the the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Workshop held on 22 September 2006 in Brussels," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 297, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Generational Accounting; Fiscal sustainability; Fiscal policy; Poland; Pension reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:85. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zbigniew Polański). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nbpgvpl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.