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Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt: Eine Regressionsanalyse / Ageing, Medical Progress and Health Care Expenditures: A Regression Analysis

Author

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  • Breyer Friedrich

    () (Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften und Statistik, Universität Konstanz, Fach D 135, D-78457 Konstanz. Tel. (0 75 31) 88-25 68, Fax -4135)

  • Ulrich Volker

    () (Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-Universität Greifswald, Rechts- und Staatswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Friedrich-Loeffler-Straße 70, D-17489 Greifswald. Tel.: (0 38 34) 86-24 67, Fax-2465)

Abstract

It is the purpose of this study to forecast the future development of total expenditures of sickness funds in Germany under the assumption that present institutions remain unchanged. Previous approaches using present age-specific expenditure data are systematically flawed. In contrast, we use regression analysis to isolate the factors responsible for the expenditure increase in the time span 1970-95, viz. demographic ageing, increasing income and a time trend, which is interpreted as the result of medical progress. A projection of the estimated equation into the future yields an increase of the contribution rate to more than 23 per cent in the year 2040.

Suggested Citation

  • Breyer Friedrich & Ulrich Volker, 2000. "Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt: Eine Regressionsanalyse / Ageing, Medical Progress and Health Care Expenditures: A Regression Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 220(1), pages 1-17, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:220:y:2000:i:1:p:1-17
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert & Davidson, Russell, 1983. "Tests for model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses : Some further results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 53-70.
    2. Pedro Pita Barros, 1998. "The black box of health care expenditure growth determinants," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(6), pages 533-544.
    3. Blomqvist, A. G. & Carter, R. A. L., 1997. "Is health care really a luxury?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 207-229, April.
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