Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt: Eine Regressionsanalyse / Ageing, Medical Progress and Health Care Expenditures: A Regression Analysis
It is the purpose of this study to forecast the future development of total expenditures of sickness funds in Germany under the assumption that present institutions remain unchanged. Previous approaches using present age-specific expenditure data are systematically flawed. In contrast, we use regression analysis to isolate the factors responsible for the expenditure increase in the time span 1970-95, viz. demographic ageing, increasing income and a time trend, which is interpreted as the result of medical progress. A projection of the estimated equation into the future yields an increase of the contribution rate to more than 23 per cent in the year 2040.
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Volume (Year): 220 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
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References listed on IDEAS
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- MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert & Davidson, Russell, 1983.
"Tests for model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses : Some further results,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-70, January.
- Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1981. "Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses: Some Further Results," Working Papers 430, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Pedro Pita Barros, 1998. "The black box of health care expenditure growth determinants," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(6), pages 533-544.
- Blomqvist, A. G. & Carter, R. A. L., 1997. "Is health care really a luxury?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 207-229, April.
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