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A fiscal outlook for Poland using generational accounts

  • Jabłonowski, Janusz
  • Müller, Christoph
  • Raffelhüschen, Bernd
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    During the next few decades the populations of most developed countries will grow older and older as a result of the low fertility rates since the 1970s and/or the continuously increasing life expectancy. Poland, one of the biggest countries in Central Europe, will be confronted rather seriously by this development. Generational Accounting which was introduced in the early nineties, can illustrate the effects of this ageing process on a country's fiscal situation. We show that the demographic development produces a major problem for the long term stability of Polish public finances. In particular the healthcare system deserves special attention for policy makers in the medium and long run, whilst the general pension system shall stabilise in the long term.

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    Paper provided by Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg in its series FZG Discussion Papers with number 47.

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    Date of creation: 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:47
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    1. Brigitte Dormont & Michel Grignon & Hélène Huber, 2006. "Health expenditure growth : reassessing the threat of ageing," Post-Print halshs-00181605, HAL.
    2. Alan M. Garber & Jonathan Skinner, 2008. "Is American Health Care Uniquely Inefficient?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 27-50, Fall.
    3. Benz, Tobias & Hagist, Christian, 2010. "Der Rücklagenbedarf der Versorgungsausgaben in Baden-Württemberg: Projektion und Reformoptionen," FZG Discussion Papers 42, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg.
    4. Willem H. Buiter, 1995. "Generational Accounts, Aggregate Saving and Intergenerational Distribution," NBER Working Papers 5087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fehr, Hans & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 1995. "Generational accounting in general equilibrium," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 47, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    6. Veronika Deeg & Christian Hagist & Stefan Moog, 2009. "The fiscal outlook in Austria: an evaluation with Generational Accounts," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 475-499, November.
    7. Ulrich Benz & Stefan Fetzer, 2006. "Indicators for Measuring Fiscal Sustainability: A Comparison of the OECD Method and Generational Accounting," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 62(3), pages 367-391, September.
    8. Bruce Baker & Daniel Besendorfer & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2002. "Intertemporal State Budgeting," NBER Working Papers 9067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 1997. "Reply to Diamond's and Cutler's Reviews of Generational Accounting," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 50(2), pages 303-14, June.
    10. Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.
    11. Friedrich Breyer & Volker Ulrich, 2000. "Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt: Eine Regressionsanalyse," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 220(1), pages 1-17.
    12. Diamond, Peter, 1996. "Generational Accounts and Generational Balance: An Assessment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 597-607, December.
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