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Der Rücklagenbedarf der Versorgungsausgaben in Baden-Württemberg: Projektion und Reformoptionen

  • Benz, Tobias
  • Hagist, Christian
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    Im vorliegenden Papier werden die Ruhegehaltsausgaben am Beispiel des Landes Baden-Württemberg bis zum Jahr 2050 projiziert. Wir zeigen, dass sich im günstigsten Fall die Ruhegehaltsausgaben von heute 2,38 Mrd. Euro auf 4,68 Mrd. Euro im Jahr 2030 bzw. 6,12 Mrd. Euro im Jahr 2050 erhöhen werden. Besonders unter dem Gesichtspunkt, dass die deutschen Bundesländer ab dem Jahr 2020 gemäß den Beschlüssen der Föderalismuskommission II keine neue Kredite mehr aufnehmen dürfen, wird der starke Anstieg der Ruhegehaltsausgaben die fiskalische Handlungsfähigkeit der Politik deutlich verringern. Eine Übertragung der Reformen der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung kann den Anstieg der Ruhegehaltsausgaben signifikant dämpfen, jedoch reicht dies für eine Stabilisierung der Ausgaben nicht aus.

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    Paper provided by Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg in its series FZG Discussion Papers with number 42.

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    Date of creation: 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:42
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    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1992. "Social Security and Medicare Policy from the Perspective of Generational Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 6, pages 129-145 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Faire Abschläge in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-63, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
    5. Besendorfer, Daniel & Dang, Emily Phuong & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2005. "Die Pensionslasten der Bundesländer im Vergleich: Status Quo und zukünftige Entwicklung," Discussion Papers 129, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg.
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