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Eine fiskalische Gesamtbilanz der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland

  • Bonin, Holger

    ()

    (ZEW Mannheim)

Dieser Beitrag analysiert die fiskalischen Gesamtwirkungen der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland mit Hilfe der demographisch basierten langfristigen Budgetmethode der Generationenbilanzierung. Für den Bestand der Einheimischen und Zuwanderer wird der Gegenwartswert der individuell über den verbleibenden Lebenszyklus geleisteten Steuern und empfangenen Transfers abgeschätzt. Auf dieser Grundlage wird unter Berücksichtigung der marginalen Bereitstellungskosten öffentlicher Güter gezeigt, dass Einwanderung die öffentlichen Haushalte intertemporal direkt entlastet, wenn künftige Zuwanderer die fiskalische Leistungsfähigkeit der heutigen Bevölkerung zügig erreichen. Darüber hinaus entstehen indirekte fiskalische Vorteile, weil die deutsche Finanzpolitik nicht nachhaltig ist. Eine Verbreiterung der Besteuerungsbasis durch Migration reduziert die zum Erhalt der staatlichen Zahlungsfähigkeit erforderliche Erhöhung der individuellen Finanzierungsbeiträge spürbar. The Fiscal Balance of Immigration to Germany The paper uses the long-term budget method of generational accounting to evaluate the overall fiscal impact of immigration to Germany. On the basis of a complete balance of life cycle taxes paid and transfer received by native and migrant residents, and accounting for the marginal cost of providing public goods, it is shown that immigration has a positive impact on the intertemporal government budget, even if future migrants do not reach the fiscal capacity of the resident migrant population at once. Further gains for the incumbent population relate to the fact that current fiscal policy is not sustainable. Generational accounting indicates that the increase of individuals’ net fiscal contributions, required to keep the government solvent in the long term, is reduced substantially, if future immigrants share the burden of adjustment.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 516.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 2002, 71 (2), 215-229
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp516
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  2. Ather H. Akbari, 1989. "The Benefits of Immigrants to Canada: Evidence on Tax and Public Services," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 15(4), pages 424-435, December.
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  4. Alan J. Auerbach & Jorge Braga de Macedo & Jost Braz & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Jan Walliser, 1999. "Generational Accounting in Portugal," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 471-488 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Auerbach, Alan J & Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1992. " Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 303-18.
  6. Torun Österberg & Björn Gustafsson, 2001. "Immigrants and the public sector budget - accounting exercises for Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 689-708.
  7. Riphahn, Regina T., 2001. "Cohort Effects in the Educational Attainment of Second Generation Immigrants in Germany: An Analysis of Census Data," IZA Discussion Papers 291, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  11. Diamond, Peter, 1996. "Generational Accounts and Generational Balance: An Assessment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 597-607, December.
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  13. M. Dolores Collado & Iñigo Iturbe Ormaetxe & Guadalupe Valera, 2002. "Quantifying The Impact Of Immigration On The Spanish Welfare State," Working Papers. Serie AD 2002-04, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  14. Philip Oreopoulos & Alan J. Auerbach, 1999. "Analyzing the Fiscal Impact of U.S. Immigration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 176-180, May.
  15. Dustmann, C, 1993. "Earnings Adjustment of Temporary Migrants," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 153-68, May.
  16. Christian Dustmann, 1996. "The social assimilation of immigrants," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 37-54, February.
  17. John P. Haisken-DeNew & Felix Büchel & Gert G. Wagner, 1996. "Assimilation and Other Determinants of School Attainment in Germany: do Immigrant Children Perform as Well as Germans?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 141, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  18. Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, 2000. "Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 57(1), pages 1-, September.
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  21. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2001. "First- and Second-Generation Migrants in Germany - What Do We Know and What Do People Think," IZA Discussion Papers 286, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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