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Eine fiskalische Gesamtbilanz der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland

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  • Bonin, Holger

    () (IZA)

Abstract

Dieser Beitrag analysiert die fiskalischen Gesamtwirkungen der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland mit Hilfe der demographisch basierten langfristigen Budgetmethode der Generationenbilanzierung. Für den Bestand der Einheimischen und Zuwanderer wird der Gegenwartswert der individuell über den verbleibenden Lebenszyklus geleisteten Steuern und empfangenen Transfers abgeschätzt. Auf dieser Grundlage wird unter Berücksichtigung der marginalen Bereitstellungskosten öffentlicher Güter gezeigt, dass Einwanderung die öffentlichen Haushalte intertemporal direkt entlastet, wenn künftige Zuwanderer die fiskalische Leistungsfähigkeit der heutigen Bevölkerung zügig erreichen. Darüber hinaus entstehen indirekte fiskalische Vorteile, weil die deutsche Finanzpolitik nicht nachhaltig ist. Eine Verbreiterung der Besteuerungsbasis durch Migration reduziert die zum Erhalt der staatlichen Zahlungsfähigkeit erforderliche Erhöhung der individuellen Finanzierungsbeiträge spürbar. The Fiscal Balance of Immigration to Germany The paper uses the long-term budget method of generational accounting to evaluate the overall fiscal impact of immigration to Germany. On the basis of a complete balance of life cycle taxes paid and transfer received by native and migrant residents, and accounting for the marginal cost of providing public goods, it is shown that immigration has a positive impact on the intertemporal government budget, even if future migrants do not reach the fiscal capacity of the resident migrant population at once. Further gains for the incumbent population relate to the fact that current fiscal policy is not sustainable. Generational accounting indicates that the increase of individuals’ net fiscal contributions, required to keep the government solvent in the long term, is reduced substantially, if future immigrants share the burden of adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonin, Holger, 2002. "Eine fiskalische Gesamtbilanz der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland," IZA Discussion Papers 516, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp516
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Battisti & Gabriel Felbermayr & Giovanni Peri & Panu Poutvaara, 2014. "Immigration, Search, and Redistribution: A Quantitative Assessment of Native Welfare," NBER Working Papers 20131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Thomas K. Bauer, 2002. "Migration, Sozialstaat und Zuwanderungspolitik," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(2), pages 249-271.
    3. Paweł Kaczmarczyk, 2013. "Are immigrants a burden for the state budget? Review paper," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/79, European University Institute.
    4. Margret Wintermantel & Matthias Kleiner & Jürgen Mlynek & Leonore Sauer & Herbert Brücker, 2008. ""Brain Drain": Gibt es in Deutschland zu wenig Möglichkeiten für Spitzenforscher?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(04), pages 03-18, February.
    5. Krieger, Tim, 2005. "Renten und Zuwanderung: Ein Überblick über neue Ergebnisse der Forschung," Arbeitspapiere der Nordakademie 2005-04, Nordakademie - Hochschule der Wirtschaft.
    6. Hinte, Holger & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2014. "Does the Calculation Hold? The Fiscal Balance of Migration to Denmark and Germany," IZA Policy Papers 87, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Marcus Dittrich & Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Beate Henschel & Gunther Markwardt & Carsten Pohl & Heinz Schmalholz & Marcel Thum, 2004. "Demographische Entwicklung im Freistaat Sachsen : Analyse und Strategien zum Bevölkerungsrückgang auf dem Arbeitsmarkt ; Gutachten im Auftrag der Sächsischen Staatskanzlei," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36, October.
    8. Biavaschi, Costanza & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2013. "Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries: Country Study on Germany," IZA Policy Papers 72, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Germany; generational accounting; migration;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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