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Does the Calculation Hold? The Fiscal Balance of Migration to Denmark and Germany

Author

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  • Hinte, Holger

    (IZA)

  • Zimmermann, Klaus F.

    (University of Bonn)

Abstract

Calculating the net fiscal effects of immigration not just for a fiscal year but over the lifespan of immigrant cohorts accentuates the assets and deficits in migration and integration policies and their long-term potential. The less national policies concentrate on a labor migrant selection process according to economic criteria, the higher the risk of generating economic losses or only a reduced surplus. A country comparison of net tax payments and generational accounts for migrants and natives reveals even more clearly that the right mix of migrants will give the best chance to maximize positive and sustainable net fiscal effects to the benefit of society. Similar socio-economic frameworks – as in the western welfare states of Denmark and Germany showcased in this paper – may still result in substantially different economic outcomes of migration. Traditional immigration countries with a long experience in selecting migrants are nonetheless confronted with the need to evaluate and adapt their policies. They may also learn from the results of net fiscal balancing.

Suggested Citation

  • Hinte, Holger & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2014. "Does the Calculation Hold? The Fiscal Balance of Migration to Denmark and Germany," IZA Policy Papers 87, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izapps:pp87
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Christl & Alain Bélanger & Alessandra Conte & Jacopo Mazza & Edlira Narazani, 2022. "Projecting the fiscal impact of immigration in the European Union," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 365-385, December.
    2. Beyer, Robert, 2016. "The Labor Market Performance of Immigrants in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145799, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Marianne Frank Hansen & Marie Louise Schultz-Nielsen & Torben Tranæs, 2017. "The fiscal impact of immigration to welfare states of the Scandinavian type," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 925-952, July.
    4. Robert C. M. Beyer, 2017. "The Performance of Immigrants in the German Labor Market," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 892, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    5. Carlo V. Fiorio & Tommaso Frattini & Andrea Riganti & Michael Christl, 2024. "Migration and public finances in the EU," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(3), pages 635-684, June.
    6. Simone Maxand & Hend Sallam, 2024. "Local Fiscal Effects of Immigration in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 11162, CESifo.
    7. Marianne Frank Hansen & Marie Louise Schultz-Nielsen & Torben Tranæs, 2015. "The Impact of Immigrants on Public Finances: A Forecast Analysis for Denmark," DREAM Working Paper Series 201501, Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM.
    8. Bedaso, Fenet, 2021. "The Labor Market Integration of Refugees and other Migrants in Germany," GLO Discussion Paper Series 884, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Sallam, Hend & Christl, Michael, 2024. "Do Migrants Pay Their Way? A Net Fiscal Analysis for Germany," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1530, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    10. Holger Hinte, 2014. "What determines the net fiscal effects of migration?," World of Labour, LISER, pages 1-78, June.
    11. Zaiceva, A. & Zimmermann, K.F., 2016. "Migration and the Demographic Shift," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 119-177, Elsevier.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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