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Did Fiscal Consolidation Cause the Double Dip Recession in the Euro Area?

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  • Philipp Heimberger

    (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria)

Abstract

This paper analyses the short-run effects of fiscal consolidation measures on economic activity in the euro area during the euro crisis. It presents new econometric estimates on the link between cumulative GDP growth and fiscal austerity measures during 2011-2013. The main empirical finding is that the depth of the economic crisis in the euro area's economies is closely related to the harshness of fiscal austerity. Cumulative multiplier estimates are found to vary in a range from 1.4 to 2.1, depending on the data source used to identify the intensity of fiscal consolidation. Given these multiplier values, a reasonable approximation of the size of the output losses due to fiscal austerity in the euro area during 2011-2013 is in the range of 5.5% to 8.4% of GDP. Against the background of the prevailing macroeconomic and institutional circumstances, fiscal consolidation is argued to be the cause of the double-dip recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Heimberger, 2015. "Did Fiscal Consolidation Cause the Double Dip Recession in the Euro Area?," ICAE Working Papers 41, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ico:wpaper:41
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:clr:wugarc:y:2016v:42i:03p:451 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "The dynamic effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on income inequality: evidence for 17 OECD countries over 1978–2013," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 53-81, February.
    3. Claudius Gräbner-Radkowitsch & Dennis Tamesberger & Philipp Heimberger & Timo Kapelari & Jakob Kapeller, 2022. "Trade Models In The European Union," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 67(235), pages 7-36, October –.
    4. Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2017. "Is Europe Disintegrating? Macroeconomic Divergence, Structural Polarisation, Trade and Fragility," wiiw Working Papers 136, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Bardaka, Ioanna & Bournakis, Ioannis & Kaplanoglou, Georgia, 2021. "Total factor productivity (TFP) and fiscal consolidation: How harmful is austerity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 908-922.
    6. Fritz Breuss, 2017. "The United States-Euro Area Growth Gap Puzzle," WIFO Working Papers 541, WIFO.
    7. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Grzegorz Parosa & Andrzej Rzońca, 2022. "Fiscal tensions and risk premium," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 833-896, August.
    8. Christos Pierros, 2021. "Assessing the internal devaluation policy implemented in Greece in an empirical stock‐flow consistent model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 905-943, November.
    9. Philipp Heimberger, 2018. "The Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation Episodes on Income Inequality," wiiw Working Papers 147, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    10. Stefan Jestl & Robert Stehrer, 2021. "EU Employment Dynamics: The Pandemic Years and Beyond," wiiw Research Reports 457, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    11. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "Public debt and r-g risks in advanced economies: Eurozone versus stand-alone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Jakob Kapeller & Claudius Graebner & Philipp Heimberger, 2019. "Economic Polarisation in Europe: Causes and Policy Options," ICAE Working Papers 99, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    13. Carlos A. CARRASCO & Edgar D. TOVAR-GARCIA, 2020. "Export Composition and the Eurozone Trade Balance in Manufacturing Goods," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 134-150, March.
    14. Bertoldi, Moreno & Orsini, Kristian, 2020. "US and euro area growth performances: Are they so different?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 860-877.
    15. Philipp Heimberger, 2025. "Fiscal consolidation and its growth effects in euro area countries: past, present and future outlook," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 589-617, December.
    16. Badru, Ruth & Calef, Andrea & Ilori, Ayobami E. & Omoju, Oluwasola E., 2025. "Fiscal consolidation and asymmetric macroeconomic effects: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    17. Robert Rowthorn, 2019. "Keynesian Economics - Back from the Dead? The Godley-Tobin Lecture," Working Papers wp512, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    18. Gräbner-Radkowitsch, Claudius & Heimberger, Philipp & Kapeller, Jakob & Landesmann, Michael & Schütz, Bernhard, 2022. "The evolution of debtor-creditor relationships within a monetary union: Trade imbalances, excess reserves and economic policy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 262-289.
    19. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 167-174, May.
    20. Philipp Heimberger, 2016. "Das "strukturelle Defizit" in der österreichischen Budgetpolitik: Berechnungsprobleme, Revisionen und wirtschaftspolitische Relevanz," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 42(3), pages 451-463.
    21. Heimberger Philipp & Welslau Lennard & Schütz Bernhard & Gechert Sebastian & Guarascio Dario & Zezza Francesco, 2024. "Debt Sustainability Analysis in Reformed EU Fiscal Rules: The Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on Growth and Public Debt Ratios," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 59(5), pages 276-283.
    22. Philipp Heimberger & Andreas Lichtenberger & Anna Matzner & Bernhard Schütz & Lea Steininger, 2024. "Monthly Report No. 2/2024," wiiw Monthly Reports 2024-02, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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