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Uncertainty about perceived inflation target and monetary policy

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  • Aoki, Kosuke
  • Kimura, Takeshi

Abstract

We analyse the interaction between private agents? uncertainty about inflation target and the central bank's data uncertainty. In our model, private agents update their perceived inflation target and the central bank estimates unobservable economic shocks as well as the perceived inflation target. Under those two uncertainties, the learning process of both private agents and the central bank causes higher order beliefs to become relevant, and this mechanism is capable of generating high persistence and volatility of inflation even though the underlying shocks are purely transitory. We also find that the persistence and volatility become smaller as the inflation target becomes more credible, that is, the private agents' uncertainty about inflation target (and hence the bank's data uncertainty) diminishes.

Suggested Citation

  • Aoki, Kosuke & Kimura, Takeshi, 2007. "Uncertainty about perceived inflation target and monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:6139
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
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    3. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 691-720, April.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2005. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1927-1950, November.
    5. Aoki, Kosuke, 2003. "On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April.
    6. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    7. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2007. "Learning, Structural Instability, and Present Value Calculations," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 253-288.
    8. Kosuke Aoki, 2006. "Price-Level Determination Under Dispersed Information And Monetary Policy," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(3), pages 406-425.
    9. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. repec:rus:hseeco:318682 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
    12. Luca Benati, 2003. "Evolving Post-World War II U.K. Economic Performance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 171, Society for Computational Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Batini, Nicoletta & Gabriel, Vasco & Levine, Paul, 2010. "A Floating versus managed exchange rate regime in a DSGE model of India," Working Papers 10/70, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Martin Melecký & Diego Rodríguez Palenzuela & Ulf Söderström, 2009. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 10, pages 371-411 Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 2011. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a DSGE Model of India," Working Papers 11/96, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine, 2008. " Monetary and Fiscal Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0810, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    5. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2007. "Monetary Rules in Emerging Economies with Financial Market Imperfections," NBER Chapters,in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 251-311 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2014. "Why is Inflation Targeting Successful?: Analysis of Inflation Target Transparency," EcoMod2014 6725, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; central banks;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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