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Inflation and output volatility under asymmetric incomplete information

Author

Listed:
  • Giacomo Carboni

  • Martin Ellison

    (Department of Economics - University of Oxford, University of Oxford and Bank of Finland - University of Oxford)

Abstract

The assumption of asymmetric and incomplete information in a standard New Keynesian model creates strong incentives for monetary policy transparency. We assume that the central bank has better information about its objectives than the private sector, and that the private sector has better information about shocks than the central bank. Transparency has the potential to trigger a virtuous circle in which all agents find it easier to make inferences and the economy is better stabilised. Our analysis improves upon existing work by endogenising the volatility of both output and inflation. Improved transparency most likely manifests itself in falling output volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Giacomo Carboni & Martin Ellison, 2010. "Inflation and output volatility under asymmetric incomplete information," Post-Print hal-00753043, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00753043
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2010.08.003
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00753043
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    2. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.
    3. Rhee, Hyuk Jae & Turdaliev, Nurlan, 2013. "Central bank transparency: Does it matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 183-197.
    4. Bin Ye & Jingjing Jiang & Lixin Miao & Ji Li & Yang Peng, 2015. "Innovative Carbon Allowance Allocation Policy for the Shenzhen Emission Trading Scheme in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Hyuk Rhee & Nurlan Turdaliev, 2015. "Central bank policy instrument forecasts," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 221-245, October.
    6. Anna Loleyt & Ilya Gurov, 2011. "The process of formation of inflation expectations in an information economy," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Initiatives to address data gaps revealed by the financial crisis", Basel, 25-26 August 2010, volume 34, pages 104-127, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Sebastian Gomez-Barrero & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2014. "Central Bank Strategic Forecasting," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 802-810, October.
    8. Stephanos Papadamou & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2016. "Central bank transparency and exchange rate volatility effects on inflation-output volatility," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 125-133.
    9. Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2012. "Transparency: can central banks commit to truthful communication?," Borradores de Economia 9614, Banco de la Republica.
    10. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.
    11. Ferre De Graeve & Jens Iversen, 2017. "Central Bank Policy Paths and Market Forward Rates: A Simple Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1197-1224, September.
    12. Barbaros Güneri & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2021. "Does economic complexity reduce output volatility in developing countries?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 411-431, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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