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Monetary Rules in Emerging Economies with Financial Market Imperfections

  • Nicoletta Batini

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Paul Levine

    (University of Surrey)

  • Joseph Pearlman

    (London Metropolitan University)

We build a two-bloc emerging market - rest of the world model. The emerging market bloc incorporates partial transactions and liability dollarization, as well as financial frictions including a ‘financial accelerator’, where capital financing is partly or totally in foreign currency as in Gertler et al. (2003) and Gilchrist (2003)). Simulations of the model under various ‘operational’ monetary policy rules derived assuming that the central bank maximizes households’ utility point to important results. First, we reaffirm the finding in the literature that financial frictions, especially when coupled with liability dollarization, severely increase the costs of a fixed exchange rate regime. By contrast, transactions dollarization has only a small impact on the choice of the monetary regime. Second, central banks in emerging economies with these frictions should not explicitly target the exchange rate; nor should they implicitly do so by choosing a CPI rather than domestic price inflation target. Third, with dollarization and frictions, the zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate makes simple Taylor-type rules perform much worse in terms of stabilization performance than fully optimal monetary policy.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series School of Economics Discussion Papers with number 0807.

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Length: 66 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0807
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  1. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2007. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 728-752, April.
  2. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph G., 2007. "Quantifying and sustaining welfare gains from monetary commitment," Working Paper Series 0709, European Central Bank.
  3. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2005. "Financial Dollarisation: Evaluating The Consequences," Business School Working Papers findollarisation, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  4. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
  5. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John Williams & Noah M. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 229-312 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2003. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," BIS Working Papers 139, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Coenen, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The Zero-Interest Rate Bound and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 3895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Aoki, Kosuke & Kimura, Takeshi, 2007. "Uncertainty about perceived inflation target and monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Simon Gilchrist & Jean-Olivier Hairault & Hubert Kempf, 2002. "Monetary policy and the financial accelerator in a monetary union," International Finance Discussion Papers 750, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Batini, Nicoletta & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph G., 2004. "Indeterminacy with inflation-forecast-based rules in a two-bloc model," Working Paper Series 0340, European Central Bank.
  12. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.
  13. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2009. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 121-149, 02.
  14. Eggertsson, Gauti B., 2006. "The Deflation Bias and Committing to Being Irresponsible," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 283-321, March.
  15. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2008. "Exchange rate determination under interest rate rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 971-993, October.
  16. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
  17. Guillermo Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 9808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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