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Le modèle d’équilibre général de la « nouvelle synthèse » : quelles hypothèses retenir ?

  • Jean-Guillaume Sahuc

    ()

    (Banque de France)

  • Stéphane Moyen

    ()

    (EPEE, Université d’Evry)

L’objet de cet article est double. D’une part, il présente le modèle d’équilibre général de la “Nouvelle Synthèse” qui est devenu en peu de temps une véritable référence pour l’analyse macroéconomique (simulations de politiques économiques, prévisions d’inflation, etc.). D’autre part, il cherche à identifier, à l’aide du critère de vraisemblance marginale et de l’inspection des moments d’ordre deux, la contribution des différentes rigidités (nominales et réelles) aux bonnes performances de ce type de modèle. Les principaux résultats sont les suivants : (i) la combinaison prix rigides et indexés - salaires rigides est indispensable à la qualité de l’ajustement du modèle aux données, (ii) seules les hypothèses de formation d’habitude sur la consommation et de coûts d’ajustement sur l’investissement sont nécessaires, cette dernière étant cruciale pour la reproduction des dynamiques aussi bien réelles que nominales, (iii) l’introduction d’une complémentarité stratégique permet de retrouver un degré de rigidités nominales plus proche de celui observé sur données microéconomiques.

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File URL: http://epee.univ-evry.fr/RePEc/2007/07-06.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne in its series Documents de recherche with number 07-06.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eve:wpaper:07-06
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  2. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Alvarez & Herve Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lunnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Price Changes in the Euro Area and the United States: Some Facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 171-192, Spring.
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