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Le modèle d’équilibre général de la « nouvelle synthèse » : quelles hypothèses retenir ?

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Guillaume Sahuc

    (Banque de France)

  • Stéphane Moyen

    (EPEE, Université d’Evry)

Abstract

L’objet de cet article est double. D’une part, il présente le modèle d’équilibre général de la “Nouvelle Synthèse” qui est devenu en peu de temps une véritable référence pour l’analyse macroéconomique (simulations de politiques économiques, prévisions d’inflation, etc.). D’autre part, il cherche à identifier, à l’aide du critère de vraisemblance marginale et de l’inspection des moments d’ordre deux, la contribution des différentes rigidités (nominales et réelles) aux bonnes performances de ce type de modèle. Les principaux résultats sont les suivants : (i) la combinaison prix rigides et indexés - salaires rigides est indispensable à la qualité de l’ajustement du modèle aux données, (ii) seules les hypothèses de formation d’habitude sur la consommation et de coûts d’ajustement sur l’investissement sont nécessaires, cette dernière étant cruciale pour la reproduction des dynamiques aussi bien réelles que nominales, (iii) l’introduction d’une complémentarité stratégique permet de retrouver un degré de rigidités nominales plus proche de celui observé sur données microéconomiques.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Stéphane Moyen, 2007. "Le modèle d’équilibre général de la « nouvelle synthèse » : quelles hypothèses retenir ?," Documents de recherche 07-06, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    • Handle: RePEc:eve:wpaper:07-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jihene Bousrih, 2012. "Degree of openness and inflation targeting policy: model of a small open economy," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 232-246, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modèles DSGE; rigidités nominales; rigidités réelles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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