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Structural estimation of the New-Keynesian model: A formal test of backward- and forward-looking behavior

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  • Jang, Tae-Seok

Abstract

This paper attempts to uncover the empirical relationship between the price-setting/consumer behavior and the sources of persistence in inflation and output. First, a small-scale New-Keynesian model (NKM) is examined using the method of moment and maximum likelihood estimators with US data from 1960 to 2007. Then a formal test compares the fit of two competing specifications in the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) and the IS equation; i.e. forward- or backward-looking behavior. Accordingly, the inclusion of a lagged term in the NKPC and the IS equation improves the fit of the model while offsetting the influence of inherited and extrinsic persistence; it is shown that intrinsic persistence plays a major role in approximating the inflation and output dynamics for the Great Inflation period. However, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at the 5% level for the Great Moderation period; i.e. the purely forward-looking behavior of the NKM and its hybrid variant are equivalent. Monte Carlo experiments illustrate the validity of the chosen moment conditions and the finite sample properties of classical estimation methods. Finally, the performance of the formal test is analyzed using the Akaike's and the Bayesian information criterion.

Suggested Citation

  • Jang, Tae-Seok, 2012. "Structural estimation of the New-Keynesian model: A formal test of backward- and forward-looking behavior," Economics Working Papers 2012-07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201207
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2012. "Identification of animal spirits in a bounded rationality model: An application to the euro area," Economics Working Papers 2012-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    backward- and foward-looking behavior; formal test; information criterion; intrinsic persistence; maximum likelihood; method of moment; New-Keynesian;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian

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