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Dornbusch Was Wrong: There is no Convincing Evidence of Overshooting, Delayed or Otherwise

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  • Pippenger, John

Abstract

Several articles claim that Eichenbaum and Evans (1995) shows that nominal exchange rates experience a delayed version of Dornbusch overshooting. These same articles usually claim that impulse responses similar to those in Eichenbaum and Evans are evidence of such overshooting. But Eichenbaum and Evans never claim that their evidence implies overshooting, delayed or otherwise. More importantly, impulse response functions like those in Eichenbaum and Evans do not support overshooting. Three recent articles repeat this misinterpretation of the evidence. My objective is to use those articles to illustrate how the evidence about overshooting is widely misinterpreted. What is interpreted as supporting overshooting is at least as consistent with an efficient market as it is with overshooting.

Suggested Citation

  • Pippenger, John, 2009. "Dornbusch Was Wrong: There is no Convincing Evidence of Overshooting, Delayed or Otherwise," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt78k0b5zw, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsbec:qt78k0b5zw
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
    3. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Michaelides, Alexander, 2001. "New evidence on the effects of US monetary policy on exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 255-263, May.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    5. Kim, Soyoung, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Foreign Exchange Policy, and Delayed Overshooting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 775-782, August.
    6. Pippenger, John, 2008. "Freely Floating Exchange Rates Do Not Systematically Overshoot," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt97m8z6hw, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    7. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
    8. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
    9. Kim, Soyoung, 2003. "Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, and the exchange rate in a unifying framework," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 355-386, August.
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