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Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Autralian Economy


  • Smith, J.
  • Murphy, C.


This paper uses an error correction model of the Australian economy in an attempt to capture the major causes of fluctuations in the Australian economy over the past fifteen years. The model is shocked by each variable in turn and the responses to the shocks are traced out. The model concludes that real wage and domestic demand shocks account for most of the instability seen in Australia in the recent past with little of the variation due to world variable shocks. For comparative purposes, these responses are then compared with similar responses applied to a macroeconomic model of the Australian economy. Copyright 1994 by The Economic Society of Australia.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, J. & Murphy, C., 1991. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Autralian Economy," Papers 222, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:aunaec:222

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    2. Maxwell L. King & Michael McAleer, 1987. "Further Results on Testing AR (1) Against MA (1) Disturbances in the Linear Regression Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(4), pages 649-663.
    3. Hall, A D & McAleer, Michael, 1989. "A Monte Carlo Study of Some Tests of Model Adequacy in Time Series Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 95-106, January.
    4. Colin McKenzie & Michael McAleer, 1997. "On Efficient Estimation and Correct Inference in Models with Generated Regressors: a General Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 368-389, December.
    5. A. R. Pagan & A. D. Hall & P. K. Trivedi, 1983. "Assessing the Variability of Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 585-596.
    6. Naorayex K. Dastoor & Michael McAleer, 1985. "On the Consistency of Joint and Paired Tests for Non-Nested Regression Models," Working Papers 614, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    7. Breusch, Trevor S., 1980. "Useful invariance results for generalized regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 327-340, August.
    8. S. P. Burke & L. G. Godfrey & A. R. Tremayne, 1990. "Testing AR(1) Against MA(1) Disturbances in the Linear Regression Model: An Alternative Procedure," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 135-145.
    9. Reinsel, Greg, 1979. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Stochastic Linear Difference Equations with Autoregressive Moving Average Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 129-151, January.
    10. Silvapulle, Paramsothy & King, Maxwell L, 1991. "Testing Moving Average against Autoregressive Disturbances in the Linear-Regression Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 329-335, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Meredith Beechey & Pär Österholm, 2008. "A Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model with Informative Steady-state Priors for the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(267), pages 449-465, December.
    2. Enders, Walter & Hurn, Stan, 2002. "Asymmetric price adjustment and the Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 395-412, September.
    3. Doucouliagos, Chris, 1997. "The Aggregate Demand for Labour in Australia: A Meta-analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(69), pages 224-242, December.
    4. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
    5. Kearney, Colm & Daly, Kevin, 1997. "Monetary volatility and real output volatility: An empirical model of the financial transmission mechanism in Australia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 77-95.
    6. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.

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    economic models ; macroeconomics;


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