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Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Autralian Economy

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  • Smith, J.
  • Murphy, C.

Abstract

This paper uses an Error Correction Model (ECM) of the Australian economy in an attempt to capture the major causes of fluctuations in the Australian economy over the past 15 years. The model is shocked by each variable in turn and the responses to the shocks are traced out. The model concludes that real wage and domestic demand shocks account for most of the instability seen in Australia in the recent past with little of the variation due to world variable shocks. For comparative purposes these responses are then compared with similar responses applied to a macroeconomic model of the Australian economy.
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Suggested Citation

  • Smith, J. & Murphy, C., 1991. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Autralian Economy," Papers 222, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:aunaec:222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
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    5. Nickell, Stephen J, 1990. "Unemployment: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(401), pages 391-439, June.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    7. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
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    Cited by:

    1. Meredith Beechey & Pär Österholm, 2008. "A Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model with Informative Steady‐state Priors for the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(267), pages 449-465, December.
    2. Enders, Walter & Hurn, Stan, 2002. "Asymmetric price adjustment and the Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 395-412, September.
    3. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
    4. Kearney, Colm & Daly, Kevin, 1997. "Monetary volatility and real output volatility: An empirical model of the financial transmission mechanism in Australia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 77-95.
    5. Chris Murphy, 2020. "Decisions in Designing an Australian Macroeconomic Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 252-270, September.

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    Keywords

    economic models ; macroeconomics;

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