IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecorec/v79y2003i245p182-195b.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation and Capacity Constraints in Australian Manufacturing Industry

Author

Listed:
  • David Shepherd
  • Ciaran Driver

Abstract

In the present paper we estimate a model of price‐cost inflation for Australia using business survey responses of firms in the manufacturing sector. The data allow us to circumvent a number of key statistical problems, related in particular to the measurement of costs and structural changes in the model. Equally important, the data allow a new and more detailed perspective on the nature of supply constraints affecting inflation in the manufacturing sector. A new finding is that capital constraints have been more important in generating inflationary pressure than labour constraints or general indicators of capacity utilisation.

Suggested Citation

  • David Shepherd & Ciaran Driver, 2003. "Inflation and Capacity Constraints in Australian Manufacturing Industry," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(245), pages 182-195, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:79:y:2003:i:245:p:182-195:b
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.t01-1-00097
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.t01-1-00097
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1475-4932.t01-1-00097?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-113, May.
    2. Mark Crosby & Nilss Olekalns, 1998. "Inflation, Unemployment and the NAIRU in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 31(2), pages 117-129, June.
    3. Smith, Jeremy & McAleer, Michael, 1995. "Alternative Procedures for Converting Qualitative Response Data to Quantitative Expectations: An Application to Australian Manufacturing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 165-185, April-Jun.
    4. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
    5. Gordon, Robert J., 1976. "Recent developments in the theory of inflation and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 185-219, April.
    6. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    7. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-565, October.
    8. D. E. W. Laidler & J. M. Parkin, 1977. "Inflation: A Survey," Palgrave Macmillan Books,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    10. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
    11. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
    13. Dixon, Robert & Shepherd, David, 2001. "Trends and Cycles in Australian State and Territory Unemployment Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(238), pages 252-269, September.
    14. Owen A. Lamont, 2000. "Investment Plans and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2719-2745, December.
    15. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1998. "Is the Phillips Curve A Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 384-398, December.
    16. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    17. Hall, V B & Saunders, Peter, 1984. "Further Evidence from Survey Data on Australian Manufacturing Price Changes," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 60(168), pages 68-84, March.
    18. Lund, P J & Martin, W E & Bennett, A G G, 1980. "Price Expectations and Their Role in the Analysis of the UK Department of Industry's Investment Intentions Inquiries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 225-239, March.
    19. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    20. V. B. Hall & Peter Saunders, 1984. "Further Evidence from Survey Data on Australian Manufacturing Price Changes," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 60(1), pages 68-84, March.
    21. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    22. V. B. Hall, 1980. "Excess Demand and ExDectations Influences on Price Changes in Australian Manufacturing Industry," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 56(152), pages 69-81, March.
    23. Harry Bloch & Michael Olive, 2001. "Pricing over the Cycle," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 19(1), pages 99-108, August.
    24. Driver, Ciaran, 1986. "Transformation of the CBI Capacity Utilization Series: Theory and Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(4), pages 339-352, November.
    25. F. Modigliani & H. M. Weingartner, 1958. "Forecasting Uses of Anticipatory Data on Investment and Sales," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 72(1), pages 23-54.
    26. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2001. "Trends and Cycles in Australian State and Territory Unemployment Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(238), pages 252-269, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiaohong Li & John Ogier & John Cullen, 2006. "An economic modelling approach for public sector construction workload planning," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(11), pages 1137-1147.
    2. Driver, Ciaran & Muñoz-Bugarin, Jair, 2010. "Capital investment and unemployment in Europe: Neutrality or not?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 492-496, March.
    3. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë Mchugh, 2007. "Modelling Wages and Prices in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 143-158, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The nature of regional unemployment in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 877-895, December.
    2. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, February.
    4. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502, Decembrie.
    5. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2006. "U.S. natural rate dynamics reconsidered," Memorandum 13/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    6. Jeff Borland & Ian McDonald, 2000. "Labour Market Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n15, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    7. Lawrence F Katz, 1998. "Reflections on US Labour Market Performance," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1998. "Is the Phillips Curve A Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 384-398, December.
    9. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
    10. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Working Papers hal-01027420, HAL.
    11. Odile Chagny & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "The equilibrium rate of unemployment : a theoretical discussion and an empirical evaluation for six OECD countries," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01027421, HAL.
    12. Jordi Galí, 2015. "Insider-outsider labor markets, hysteresis and monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 1506, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2020.
    13. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, February.
    14. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    15. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    17. Lucas Papademos, 2005. "Macroeconomic theory and monetary policy: the contributions of Franco Modigliani and the ongoing debate," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 187-214.
    18. G.C. Lim & Robert Dixon & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2009. "Phillips Curve and the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(271), pages 371-382, December.
    19. Mayes, David G. & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Unemployment in a small open economy: Finland and New Zealand," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/1999, Bank of Finland.
    20. Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "Do we know how low inflation should be?," IHEID Working Papers 06-2001, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    21. Patrick Minford & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2010. "Vicious And Virtuous Circles – The Political Economy Of Unemployment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(1), pages 1-22, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:79:y:2003:i:245:p:182-195:b. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esausea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.