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Das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial zu Vollzeitäquivalenten: Messkonzept, Projektion und Anwendungsbeispiele

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  • Thomas A. Knetsch
  • Katja Sonderhof
  • Wolfram Kempe

Abstract

We propose a concept of potential labour force in full-time equivalents which can be used to measure aggregate labour supply in terms of hours worked. It is designed to calculate labour input in production function estimates of medium-run potential output. Particular attention is paid to the interdependency between labour force participation and working-time decisions. Assuming that participation in working life among older people and women will increase, and if migration surpluses remain high, the potential labour force is likely to be stabilised until 2020 despite the evident curbing impact of the age cohort effect. However, a decline is to be expected in full-time equivalents due to the negative repercussions of rising labour force participation on working hours. / Mit dem Erwerbspersonenpotenzial zu Vollzeitäquivalenten wird ein Messkonzept für das gesamtwirtschaftliche Arbeitsangebot auf Stundenbasis vorgeschlagen. Es dient zur Berechnung des Faktors Arbeit in angebotsseitigen Schätzungen des Produktionspotenzials in der mittleren Frist. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit wird der Interdependenz zwischen Erwerbsbeteiligung und Arbeitszeitentscheidung geschenkt. Unter der Annahme zunehmender Beteiligung von Älteren und Frauen am Erwerbsleben sowie bei fortgesetzt hohen Wanderungsüberschüssen kann das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial trotz eines spürbar dämpfenden Alterskohorteneffekts bis 2020 stabilisiert werden. In Vollzeitäquivalenten ist aufgrund der negativen Rückwirkung steigender Erwerbsbeteiligung auf die Arbeitszeit allerdings mit einem Rückgang zu rechnen.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas A. Knetsch & Katja Sonderhof & Wolfram Kempe, 2014. "Das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial zu Vollzeitäquivalenten: Messkonzept, Projektion und Anwendungsbeispiele," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 134(1), pages 1-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:dah:aeqsjb:v134_y2014_i1_q1_p1-24
    DOI: 10.3790/schm.134.1.1
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    1. Fuchs, Johann & Dörfler, Katrin, 2005. "Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2050 : Annahmen und Datengrundlage," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200525, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Kajuth Florian, 2016. "NAIRU Estimates for Germany: New Evidence on the Inflation–Unemployment Tradeoff," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 104-125, February.
    4. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2005. "Vorausschätzung der Erwerbsbevölkerung bis 2050," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200516, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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