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A Note on the Dynamics of Persistence in US Inflation

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  • Noriega Antonio E.
  • Ramos Francia Manuel

Abstract

Empirical research on the degree and stability of inflation persistence in the US has produced mixed results: some suggest high and unchanged persistence during the last few decades, while others argue in favor of a decline in persistence since the early 1980s. We show that post-WWII US inflation (monthly and quarterly) became highly persistent during the´Great Inflation´ period, and then switched back to a low persistence process during 1984, and has remained stationary until the present day.

Suggested Citation

  • Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2008. "A Note on the Dynamics of Persistence in US Inflation," Working Papers 2008-12, Banco de México.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2008-12
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    File URL: http://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/documentos-de-investigacion/banxico/%7BE78A0EF8-4241-BD03-782A-6334960E47EB%7D.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    2. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Modified tests for a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 441-469, October.
    3. María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    4. Stephen J. Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2006. "Regression-based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 595-621, October.
    5. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter.
    6. Stephen Leybourne & Robert Taylor & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2007. "CUSUM of Squares-Based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 408-433, May.
    7. Leybourne Stephen & Kim Tae-Hwan & Taylor A.M. Robert, 2007. "Detecting Multiple Changes in Persistence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-34, September.
    8. Meredith Beechey & Pär Österholm, 2012. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(3), pages 55-86, September.
    9. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
    10. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1193-1224, September.
    11. Manmohan S. Kumar & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2007. "Dynamics of Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1457-1479, September.
    12. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1987. "The optimal collection of seigniorage : Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 327-341, September.
    13. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Noriega & Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2013. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1243-1265, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Multiple change in persistence; Stationarity; Great inflation.;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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